AmateurRadio.com

Results from the national RAC Survey 2021

The 2021 RAC Survey asked about the use of frequency band segments and hours per month devoted to each one. This identifies where Canadian amateur operators transmit to complement what type of communications they reported (see Full Report). The bands used and the amount of time per month reported by survey participants provide the contours of these behaviors in Canada. They also provide RAC with demonstrable data for the Canadian regulator as to how these frequency allocations are being utilized by the amateur radio service in that country.

I begin with the share of hams reporting the bands and band ranges they use in a typical month (see Figure 1). The results are fairly clear, reflecting no surprise at the dominant bands, but give empirical contours to those used by smaller segments of Canadian hams.

This chart shows that two-meters is the common band for over 90 percent of Canadian amateurs. The HF bands, from 80-10 meters, are second at over 80 percent. The UHF band of 430 MHz is used by two-thirds (67%). These three bands are used in a typical month by a majority of hams in Canada. They are followed by the Magic Band of six-meters (46%) at less than one-half. The Top Band, 160 meters, is used by almost a third (30%) of these hams. The 220 MHz band captures about one-fifth of Canada’s operators. Above this frequency, are the microwave allocations, including Super HF at above 3 Ghz. None reach a tenth in reported usage and systematically decline as the frequency goes higher. It is likely that the need to homebrew much of the equipment to operate in these frequencies is an inhibitor for their use. This may change in the future as commercial manufacturers get into this market segment.

A total of 194,174 hours per month were reported by Canadian amateurs to have been used over 15 bands during 2021. The average is 93 with an estimated standard error of 5.4 hours. The variation in these reported hours is large, with a standard deviation of 249! (This is not unusual in a highly skewed distribution.) The median is 34 hours per month, or just over an hour a day. This means that one-half spend more with the other half in the survey reporting less. These statistics are only for hams reporting any hours of usage per month (a total of 121 respondents reported zero hours). This demonstrates that many operators are active, perhaps one hour per day or so while a smaller segment report spending vast amounts of time on one or more of these bands.

These summaries should be qualified with a small anomaly. One element of modern amateur operations is “always-on” monitoring receivers or beacons. These could be APRS on 2-meters, transmit beacons on other bands, scanning VHF bands or above, and a host of others. The survey asked an open-ended question about hours of use on a given frequency band. Some respondents added text statements when they replied with 720 hours per month (24 hours x 30 days) to the effect that beacons or other “always-on” transmitters or (scanning) receivers were used in their shack on that band segment. Some of the extreme hours reported per month likely reflect these “always-on” monitoring activities.

These patterns can be seen in Figure 2, containing two box plots of total hours reported. On the left, the number of hours is concentrated around the median (represented by the dark line in the middle of the “box”) of about 34 but a share of respondents responded to the question with increasingly larger totals. The 3,000-hour total clearly reflects multiple radios in operation at the same time by a given operator in the survey. Many of those reporting less than this highest value also fit into this operating style. The complementary box plot (right) illustrates how the bulk of hams vary in hours of operation on all bands. This is expressed in a log transformation of total hours. This graph of the log (LN) of hours reported shows the distribution in a way that is not dominated by the extreme high values reported in the survey. This set of graphs show that there is a small portion of Canadian amateurs who report large numbers of hours on multiple band segments whereas the high majority say they operate around the median of 34 hours or so.

However, the more representative pattern of behavior is a spread of hours that varies by band. To best understand these patterns, we consider the “time portfolio” that a ham might allocate to the hobby. The median would suggest about an hour a day (which may be bundled to several on a weekend but none on a few week days). What share of time in the total number of hours that amateurs report spending each month is allocated to each of these band segments? In other words, whatever the total time spent on the hobby, where is it spent in the frequency spectrum?

I computed the total time as described above. The reported hours on each band were converted into a percent of the total time spent per month by band. These percentages, which total to 100 percent for an individual respondent, are shown in Figure 3 as a box plot of the distribution by band. This represents a time portfolio characterizing each amateur in the survey.

Two patterns jump out to me in Figure 3. Some hams spend most of their time on 2 meters and 430 mHz while others are mostly HF operators. This is not a surprising result for most readers. There are small numbers of hams who are effectively “band specialists.” Note those near the 100 percent mark on various microwave bands or 160 meters or the lowest bands, 630 and 2200 meters. Some operate mostly on six meters. The bands with low medians but a skewed distribution toward the highest end illustrate these specializations.

It is important to note the dominant patterns of frequency usage while also recognizing that not all hams follow suit. Some choose to be band specialists in the time they spend participating on these frequency allocations. These are the first such data ever reported on a national sample of licensed amateurs so it is a benchmark against the various impressions that most hams have of how bands are utilized on a routine basis.

Age Patterns by Frequency Range

I have organized comparisons by age group for each prominent frequency band: Low Frequency, HF, Very and Ultra High Frequency, and Super High Frequency (see Full Report for details). These results will tell us about age differences in how bands are used. Do younger hams use particular bands than more senior ones? Are there sharp differences by age in the adoption of higher bands? Age patterns can inform us about future band allocation policies so they can be critical bits of data for national advocacy groups and spectrum regulators.

Low Frequency (LF) Bands

I begin with low frequency (LF) bands, including 2200, 630 and 160 meters as represented in a stacked barchart (Figure 4). Each bar represents the banduse composition for a given age group with specific labels to make reading them a bit easier.

As a long-standing band allocation, the Top Band of 160-meters is used by every age group. This is particularly so for those over age 30. But the newer allocations of 630- and 2200-meters are sparingly used among all ages. Likely because of the required antenna lengths and land-use restrictions, the lowest frequency band (2200-meters) has, at most, a mere 3 percent participation in any age groups. The 630-meter band has at most a 5 percent usage rate, this among twenty-year-olds. Surprising results perhaps but it is informative to more fully grasp how the newer LF bands are reportedly being used.

High Frequency (HF) Bands

The results for HF include the Magic Band of six-meters are shown in Figure 5. There are few surprises in this graph. The 80 through 10-meter bands are enjoyed by over half of the hams in Canada for those over age 20. (This is likely due to licensing patterns.) These are the most long-standing allocations where the widest variety of commercially available equipment is available to the amateur radio market. Use of 80-10 meters slightly increases with age (e.g., 20-year-olds at 53% vs 80-year-olds at 94%). The HF bands are in good stead regarding dominant use by hams in Canada.

For six meters, use is fairly constant at just less than one-half of Canadian ham operators play in the periodically open Magic Band. This really does not change much by age. The attraction to this low-opening, high-reward band is the ability to work DX during band openings. A minor attraction is local and regional communications, often using repeaters operational on the band. To link this band back to Figure 3’s time portfolio, note the share of hams who spend most of their time on six meters.

The result of the highest reported usage (33%) among the small number of teens in the survey should be taken cautiously since the actual use in the population could be different than the other age groups with higher numbers of respondents (i.e., there is a low number of teens in the survey).

In short, the results for usage in the high frequency to six-meter bands is largely what would be expected by most amateur operators. But knowing the age patterns does empirically illustrate how young hams get into HF at those ages, too. This grounds the survey into the type of results that can be more reliably trusted for findings that are unexpected, too. The intriguing result of the “band specialists” for six meters await openings to operate tell us about another segment of the amateur radio hobby in Canada.

Very and Ultra High Frequency (VHF/UHF) Bands

Turning to VHF and UHF bands, Figure 6 also shows no surprises: two meters is king! About 90 percent or more of every age group says they work two meters in a typical month, hands-down the universal frequency band for Canadian amateurs (see Figure 1). This is followed by the 430 MHz band which is a bit more popular among younger hams than older ones who tend to favor 2 meters. The 220 MHz band universally holds a slice of about one-fifth (15-24%) of the survey respondents’ reported usage.

Now, we often hear: why are the repeaters dead? I interpret these survey results with reference to Figure 3 above regarding the time portfolio spent on 2 meters. Most Canadian hams say they spend between 10 and 50 percent of ALL their amateur radio hobby on the 2 Meter band. I suspect that this is due to the prevalence of short-lived Nets that are on weekly activation cycles but this is speculation. So many hams check-in, have nothing to report, and are quickly off of the Net. Some hams may check-in to many Nets while others just a few (or none).

This time-targeted behavior pattern hypothesis may not explain these survey results versus the mantra that we all tend to hear but it’s one possibility for sure. It does beg the question of what “dead” means in this sense. No one there when a given ham listens for a few minutes? No one responding to a dropped call sign on the frequency? Given these survey results, the use of “dead” may be hyperbole.

Microwave and Super High Frequency (SHF) Bands

Moving into the microwave and Super High Frequency ranges involving the highest band allocations, Figure 7 shows these results of band usage by age. (I have included the 900 Mhz to 2.3 Ghz bands here for convenience, technically not part of the SHF range.) The barriers to getting into SHF operations differ markedly from other bands. There are fewer off-the-shelf commercial radios and associated equipment so homebrewing is almost a perquisite. The equipment and space for homebrewing, for instance, a transverter for an HF or VHF/UHF radio or a horn antenna is not available to every ham operator as they can be very expensive relative to VHF/UHF or HF radios and antennas.

With this preface, there are significant age-graded patterns of usage in this frequency allocation region. Figure 6 displays a stacked bar chart by age group of Super HF band use. This region of band allocation is sparsely used at the highest band of 24 GHz. The users are exclusively in the 40- to 70-year-old groups. On the other end, the 900 MHz region is used by all age groups, especially younger hams. The 1.2 GHz band has a significant group of users, between a fifth and a third of those from age 40 to 80 or more. This compares well with the 5 GHz (5650-5925 MHz) band. The 2 GHz region is close behind. With these relatively new allocations as compared to HF, for instance, there is likely to be increased use. The concentration of use in large urban centers may foster increased adoption since there are more operators and Elmers available in those cities.

With this in mind, Figure 7 shows that younger hams do operate in the various SHF bands (slightly less than one third). There is a spread of participants across these individual bands, too. Most of it is in the 900 Mhz to 5 Mhz range as 10 Ghz and above require quite specialized equipment. As more commercially manufactured equipment comes on the market, this highest set of bands may perk up, too.

Conclusions on Band Use in Canada

There is a healthy use of the amateur radio spectrum in Canada as reported by the hams in this national survey. Two meters is the common band for the vast majority. But HF is a dominant place where Canadian amateurs get on the air, too. The age patterns in band use are not as prevalent as they are in modes of operation (see Full Report and previous blog articles). This bodes well for future band allocations as use is often said to drive allocations.

It is good to see the presence of hams in bands above HF. While some of this is very specialized technology at this point in time, experimentation and innovation in the SHF region will likely yield grand benefits. This national survey confirms these patterns of behavior rather than rely on what is technically hearsay by individual hams. These results should also have importance for manufacturers and, especially, small innovators. They establish a market for such products. We now know that the bands above VHF/UHF have a significant segment of amateurs participating in activities on these frequency regions. Moreover, the mainline HF and VHF/UHF markets are stable, a safe and sound target for product design and sales.

The Churches and Chapels on the Air coordinator, John Wresdall G3XYF, sent this notice out this morning:

Dear All,
thanks to all those who have let me know they are operating in CHOTA 2024
on 14 Sept . If you intend to put your church or chapel on the air please let me know. The latest list is periodically uploaded to the WACRAL site when Mike G0RBB can manage it.
73
John G3XYF

John’s email for this is: jhwresdell@gmail.com. He is good on QRZ.com

Note: CHOTA 2024 is September 4, 2024. See other posts on this blog about CHOTA. The main site for this event is: https://wacral.org/chota-2024/. My church group had a blast last year!

Results from the RAC Survey 2021 and Statistics Canada

One of the pressing issues facing all amateur radio organizations in the modern world is what appears to be a rapidly aging set of participants. We mostly base this belief on various observations at in-person amateur radio activities since licensing bodies rarely ever collect or release birth dates with their license data. (Not all release actual license records themselves.) The issue is whether we are simply seeing ham operators who participate in these venue events or is the ham population actually aging as much as our eyes tell us? I present national data on the aging patterns of Canadian amateurs in addition to projections for the future. The results are sobering for they are predicated on a clear demographic pattern in the developed world itself.

From every data source that I have seen or analyzed, the population of amateur radio licensees worldwide is substantially graying.¹ RAC Survey 2021 respondents were asked what is your age group and given a choice of mostly decade-length age ranges. The 2021 Census of Canada age-by-year data were extracted from Statistics Canada and collapsed to fit the same age ranges (see Final Report). These data are presented in a population pyramid in Figure 1. The Canadian population (left) and RAC Survey 2021 of amateurs (right) add a further confirmation of this aging amateur radio population. Ham operators in the survey are far below the population at less than age fifty but increasingly over the population distribution after the half-century mark. In the sixties and above, amateur operator percentages are over double that of the population at large.

What does this population distribution comparison mean for amateur radio in Canada? There are at least two elements to the demographic equation here. If we think of amateur radio as a behavior, a hobby or a pastime that occurs over the life course of individuals, then the behavior of being a ham operator may be age-related regardless of the historical period.² Or, alternatively, it could be an historical period behavior that is prominent during an age range (or birth cohort) of one or more adjacent periods in history. In simpler terms, is amateur radio mostly a Baby Boom-era hobby that is scheduled to recede into a much smaller pursuit? There are many behaviors that do largely fade away as the participants age through other stages of life. Some, however, begin at later stages without younger groups joining the activity until they reach that age range. I will show evidence of both through my analysis of this national Canadian survey.

This life course perspective recognizes the effects on hobby behavior that are frequently revealed by hams themselves: work, marriage, family formation, competing interests, and others. Additional investigations with relevant data are required to answer these questions. But one aspect that is critical involves the future Canadian population itself. How is it scheduled to age over the next several decades? This will indeed shape the hobby in significant ways, given current circumstances in the hobby.

Statistics Canada has published age-specific population projections for the nation. These have been used to prepare Figure 2 with various projection scenarios (left) and age-specific projections from 2021 to 2050 (right). As is common, the “medium growth” scenario was selected to present the scheduled growth of age groups. Shown in the purple line (left), this set of assumptions for population growth fall in the middle of those with high-growth or slow-aging models versus low-growth or fast-aging parameters. They are generally the most reliable to use for analyses such as this.

The results in the right panel for each age group that were configured to match the RAC Survey age groups tell us that the population in Canada will grow in the middle-age categories and in the most senior ones. Those in the twenties through fifties will top the age pyramid by 2050, followed by those most senior residents in their seventies and over. The youngest population of teens (10 through 19) will be far smaller. This is a significant signal to policy-makers in Canada with two clear implications for amateur radio in Canada.

One is that the age groups of 60-80 years of age, now dominating amateur radio as the RAC Survey suggests, will simply disappear as they age-out to infirmity or becoming Silent Keys. Yet, the projected number of persons in these age groups are scheduled to actually grow in number over the forecast period.

A second implication is that teens will be a relatively scarce recruitment commodity in terms of the age pyramid. There will simply not be enough of them to replace those Baby Boomers now dominating the hobby. The much higher rates for the recruitment of younger people are significantly higher than has been the case in the recent past. Compare Figure 1 Canadian population versus estimated amateur radio population for these age groups to also see this imbalance as follows. The ratio of the population percent to the amateur operator percent tells us what recruitment improvement would be necessary to actually fit the population.

To aid in illustrating what the demographic patterns for the Canadian age structure mean for amateur radio, consider what rates of “recruitment” would be necessary to simply replace the current share of licensed hams by age group. I’ve summarized a simple table (Table 1) of this “additional recruitment success” that would be needed to just maintain what we have today in Canada for those below age 50.

While it would only take recruiting 1.5 times the current number in the age 40 range, it becomes increasing more challenging as each age group gets younger. For those in their thirties, when typical family obligations are most demanding, it would require 4.6 times the current number to be recruited base on the future population projections for this age segment. The dramatically higher rates are for those in their twenties (16.7 times) and teens (20 times) make it simply unfeasible to realistically believe that current methods of age-specific recruitment will come close to securing these levels of required newcomes into the hobby. To repeat, in practical terms, there simply will not be enough members of these youngest cohorts to replace their current age segment even if all parties went into recruitment modes with their “hair on fire”.

Demography can be destiny. But it does not have to be so.

Understanding Ham “Careers” and Recruitment into the Hobby

While the population demography reflects a challenge for the future of amateur radio in Canada, it is important to more fully understand how the hobby is pursued over the ham’s “career” as a licensed amateur operator. There is a notion, perhaps rooted in the Baby Boomer and preceding generations, harkening back to the emergence of amateur radio itself, that young people get exposed to amateur radio, get licensed and continue their amateur radio careers in a continuous fashion. (For more and an empirical investigation, see Howell 2021) This would make the teen years the principal period in the life course for recruitment into the hobby. In the survey, however, there is only modest evidence of this pattern.

RAC Survey 2021 participants were asked how many years they had held a license as well as have been active in the hobby. The graphic in Figure 3 displays histograms of the frequency of hams in each year bin. On the left is length of holding a license (tenure). The right panel is the same display except for years of activity. The average years of license tenure is about 26 while 22 is the average of years active. The variation in each measure is about the same, a standard deviation of around 17-18 years. The experience levels among Canadian amateurs are lengthy but it is also quite variable.

There are two things to hold out as important from this graphic. One is that survey responses bunch around newcomers (or zero to 4 years) or 25-30 years of holding a license. Activity is about the same pattern except the bunching of respondents is not as pronounced as license tenure. The “careers” of activity in amateur radio tend to vary quite a bit. A second is that these two variables are not linked to the same amateur. How many have activity periods that last for most of their license tenure? What lengths of active periods characterize Canadian hams?

Hams who are in the most senior age groups report years of license tenure suggesting that the teen years were when they became licensed. Moreover, a large number of them say they have been “active” all of their licensed years.³ This notion, however, does not fit many respondents in the survey. The latter are large enough to beg the question of how valid is this traditional idea with which we often characterize all amateurs. Like many stereotypes, there are significant popular examples that fit but it also mischaracterizes a larger share of ham operators.

We have visualized this linkage through a scatterplot of ham radio activity by license tenure with age groups identified (see Figure 4). A scatter plot is an X-Y plotting of individual data points along the data values of each variable. The age group for each survey respondent is shown by a distinct color.

There are no respondents above the line in this plot since activity is predicated in this survey upon holding a license. The diagonal line of hams reflects those who have been active their entire careers in ham radio. Only among those in the most senior age groups (e.g., 70 and over) supports the commonly held pattern of getting licensed at a teen or young adult and staying the course. There are many of these amateurs but they are far from being the dominant group.

The large number of data points moving away from this diagonal (toward the lower right) reflect hams who got licensed and have not been “active” nearly as long as those on the straight diagonal line. The most senior groups reveal many who were not licensed early in their lives but significantly later. Thus, these data illustrate that our conventional image of the amateur who gets licensed early in life and maintains that hobby activity throughout is largely a stereotype that nevertheless fits a smaller share of the population. These patterns of activity are directly pertinent to policies for recruitment into the hobby. They illustrate clearly the significant market for late-in-life hams. See Howell (2013) for another U.S. survey with data on late-in-life ham operators.

To further illustrate inactivity over the ham’s career, Figure 5 uses box plots of the simple difference between years licensed and years of activity (i.e., years licensed – years active). It’s broken out by age group. Box plots show the data around the center point of the median at the middle of the box. In this case, zero provides a bounding so that there is only one end of the distribution of survey respondents.

These data are highly skewed toward higher periods of less activity (“inactivity”). The median lines in the boxes are barely visible. There is a trail of hams who report a growing gap of inactivity as age increases. Some get licensed but drop out of the hobby, at least for some periods of time. For example, for the most senior group, some have been licensed-but-inactive for 40 or more years. Over their license tenure, a significant group of hams fall away from practicing the hobby.⁴ This licensed but inactive segment represents a ripe market for recruitment back into amateur radio activities. I will note in passing that we do not have any consensus for what “active” in the hobby means.

Conclusions

These results describe an emerging demographic shift in Canada that will affect the amateur radio hobby.  There will simply not be enough younger people to replace those Baby Boomers now dominating the hobby. But what is the fundamental reason behind these population projections leading to fewer younger people in the decades ahead? It is now something unique to Canada but common to all developed countries. In Figure 6, I’ve reproduced a graph showing the total fertility rate (TFR) over time among a number of countries. This was recently published in the highly respected demography journal, The Lancet. The gray line at the fertility rate of 2.1 is the replacement level for a given population. High income countries include Canada, the U.S. and the UK, among others. They have been below replacement level since around 1980. Thus, the issue of why official Canadian population projections show that younger age groups will be diminished in the near term is due to this falling total fertility rate among high income countries around the world.

Returning to the issue of these demographic patterns for amateur radio, the rates for the recruitment of younger people to achieve mere replacement are significantly higher than has been the case in the recent past. This should not be misconstrued to suggest that it would be a waste of time to expose young people to amateur radio as a recruitment method. It may well be an incubator effect of planting the seed that will be sown later in the life course. The short-term efforts should not ignore middle-age prospects for the hobby. They have three key characteristics that make them prime targets for marketing. One, they tend to be “empty nesters” without dependent children. Two, they are at or near their peak-earning years with perhaps the highest discretionary income they will ever have. Three, they have more time on their hands for the pursuit of hobbies. The demographic fact is that there will also be more of them in the near term for effective recruitment into the hobby.

These results encourage strategic and efficient methods for RAC and its membership clubs and associated organizations to reach both the youth population as well as later-in-life adults. Demography does not have to be destiny if these actions are taken soon. But it will be if heads are placed solidly into the sand.

Notes

1.For other data on the aging ham operator population in the United States and the United Kingdom, see https://k4fmh.com/2021/08/28/the-secret-storm-approaching-cw-contesting/ or https://k4fmh.com/2021/03/31/uk-regulator-ofcom-releases-ham-licenses-by-age-compares-favorably-with-us-estimates/.

2.The “life course” is the routine and mostly orderly progression of the transition of individuals among various recognized stages of life. The broadest definition is “The entirety of individual’s life from birth to death and the typical set of circumstances an individual experiences in a given society as they age.” (Source: https://sociologydictionary.org/life-course/).

3.This question wording leaves the definition of activity up to the respondent. I’ve asked many hams what being “active” in the hobby means. I received a wide-ranging variety of responses that do not identify a singular coherent defining concept.

4.In analysis not shown, there is virtually no distinction in reported inactivity during the amateur career and current RAC membership. We cannot determine whether past membership patterns is linked to periods of inactivity during the full period of license tenure.

References

Frank M. Howell. 2013. “Survey of Members 2013.” ARRL Delta Division Report. Online resource: http://arrldelta.org/dd-final13.pdf.

Frank M. Howell. 2021. “The lost Tribe, the Pied Piper and the Executive.” The Spectrum Monitor October, 7-12. Available for download as a PDF here.

Frank M. Howell and Scott Wright. 2021. https://foxmikehotel.com/aging-and-radio-contesting/

Results from the RAC Survey 2021

In a previous blog post, I showed the popularity of some 39 specific operating activities among Canadian hams using the national RAC Survey 2021. There were very small age differences in the average total number of activities. However, there are indeed clear age patterns in specific operating activities. This article presents those patterns as well as in the overall themes of operating.¹ There are telling distinctions in these age-related operating preferences, ones that will likely follow the hobby over the next few decades.

Age Group Patterns in Specific Activities. Age differences occur in the adoption of some of the newest technologies emerging in the hobby. It is not surprising to the reader that this was by younger hams. Conversely, some long-standing activities with traditional appeal hold lower levels of engagement by younger amateurs. The line charts in Figure 1 compare a set of traditional activities with more recently-emerging ones, like digital data modes, that have become much talked about in the hobby. These represent some key age patterns in the RAC Survey of 2021.

Using traditional voice modes, whether SSB, AM or FM, has been a staple of ham radio for decades as has the original transmission mode, CW. Both are used at lower rates among young Canadian hams while they reach their respective zenith among the most senior group. Comparing this top panel with that on the bottom, there is a corollary with digital modes and mobile or portable operations. Younger hams say they do these activities at higher rates than older hams. The trend, like the comparable ones in the top panel, are mostly continuous and downward.

Chasing DX becomes more appealing during middle age and continues until senior status. The same is true for HF rag-chewing. These two activities may well typify many senior hams to the extent that these survey results reflect the country’s population of amateurs. By sharp contrast, it’s the data modes of all stripes, including satellites (including ARISS), drone operations, and telemetry that have higher participation rates among younger age groups. If it’s portable and digital, these younger hams are more likely to report that they are doing it.

This begs the question of Elmering activity. There is a higher percentage of teens that report this activity of coaching other hams than any other single group. But this age group is a small sample size (n=8) so it’s not a reliable estimate. The more conservative interpretation is that Elmering is mostly for those successively older in age. Peer teaching by young hams, however, is a clearly desirable goal.² This survey just did not capture it due to the lower response rate among younger hams.

A strikingly age-graded activity is CW operating. Up to the age of 49, CW use is lower than 20 percent, or one-fifth of the full survey respondents. This increase to almost one-third for those in their fifties, and increases to a majority among those eighty or over. While there is anecdotal evidence that CW interest and practice is growing among younger groups in Canada and the U.S., this new data on activity participation casts a pall on any broad generalizations from those “feel-good” media stories. CW operation does appear at-risk of becoming more of a niche activity over the next couple of decades based on these demographic patterns.³

A final traditional activity, the restoration of classic radios, seems very fitting to be something that connects a younger period in life with an older one. This trend is found in the top panel but just not as dramatic as one could expect. It rises past ten percent during the fifties, increasing until the seventies among survey respondents.

Age Patterns in Themes of Operating. Because a number of these activities appear to overlap, such as DXing and Contesting or Public Service and Emergency Communications, I created summaries of homogeneous operating themes from them (see full report for details).  These are illustrated in Table 1.

Because of the concern about age in the amateur radio space, I have constructed line charts by age group for these themes of operating activity in Figure 2. I separated more conventional activities into the left panel and newer activities in the right (except for Mentoring). There are clear age patterns in these graphs. They tend to confirm the age patterns in the individual activities but they give a broader picture to the overall patterns.

Younger hams tend to be engaged in QRP portable activities as well as digital modes more than older operators. They tend to not get involved in competition, in contrast to much social media to the contrary. In addition, younger hams do not report traditional building activities or operations (CW) nearly as much as middle-aged or more senior amateurs. These are important findings for they fly in the face of some contemporary thinking by many in amateur radio.

The activities of competing against other hams as well as traditional experimental work and operations do not go above average activity levels until these hams reach age 50 and above. Traditional activities remain at these levels by age group. Competition tends to trail off after age 80, a result also observed in twenty years of U.S. ARRL Sweepstakes Contest data (Howell and Wright, 2021). They tend to be average or below in QRP portable activities and digital mode operations.

In the right panel of Figure 2, mentoring is something engaged in by all age groups above the average score with the exception of the twenty-year-old group. Younger operators report much higher participation in remote control operations as well as satellite work. Balloon operations are the third above average activity for younger operators. Super HF band work is above average for those from the twenties until the seventies. For the most senior hams, no activity reaches an average score except mentoring.

Conclusions

The findings shown here for younger hams versus those in the older Baby Boomer generation are much talked about in amateur radio. These national survey data from Canada confirm some of those observations but in specific ways. Younger hams are engaged much more in computer-based digital and portable operating activities that are newer developments in the hobby. The converse is true for more senior hams who say they operate in traditional ways but not as much digital or portable. The practice of CW mode is a rather clear example. Only some 15 percent or thereabouts of younger operators use CW while over 40 percent do among senior hams. Note that these are patterns for which some individual exceptions on the margins can also be true but the overall patterns remain. There is a clear age-graded transition afoot in behavioral practices within the amateur radio hobby.

Age-graded activities identify sectors of the hobby that may grow or decline in the future. Advocacy and Elmering can perhaps change those patterns but these baseline data are important to benchmark such future impacts. The irony is that the very activity of Elmering exhibits these same age-graded patterns: senior hams engage more in coaching than do younger hams. Thus, will relative youth reject advice to engage more in traditional operating activities when they themselves tend to embrace newly-emerging ones? Comparisons of the 2021 survey with another in the future will tell the tale of such potential change.

References

Frank M. Howell and Scott Wright. 2021. “Generational Change in ARRL Contesting: The Pending Demographic Cliff Ahead.” Retrieved at https://foxmikehotel.com/aging-and-radio-contesting/.

Notes:

1. The full report of my analysis, along with data from Statistics Canada and ISED, is published on the FoxMikeHotel.com website as Operating Patterns Among Canadian Amateurs: Results from the RAC Survey 2021. Please see that report for details of this national survey of Canadian hams.

2. In Appendix B of the full report at FoxMikeHotel.com, there is a chart (Figure B2) illustrating that participating in organized youth training activities (JOTA, YOTA) kicks in during the late twenties, peaking during middle age. Thus, the youngest hams do not appear to be engaged in peer teaching per se but younger adults do get involved in increasing proportions until their fifties.

3. Evidence from 20 years of the ARRL Sweepstakes Contest participation appears in Howell and Wright (2021). These results show a clear parallel of an incipient CW contesting decline in the ARRL Sweepstakes CW Contest.

Results from the 2021 RAC National Survey

Author’s note: a version of this appeared in the May 2024 issue of The Canadian Amateur, available to members only. I retain copyright to the material. After numerous requests from non-members of RAC, I have posted the material here for all to read.

What are the most popular activities among Canadian hams? Each one is likely to say it’s what they do. Now we have national survey results to give us a more complete picture rather than a collection of comments at the local ham radio club or convention.

The Radio Amateurs of Canada (RAC) periodically conducts surveys to obtain objective information on the current status of amateur radio in Canada. The national RAC Survey of 2021 focused on operating patterns among radio amateurs, including how active they are in various specific aspects of the hobby and some key demographics. Paul Coverdell VE3ICY constructed the survey instrument (see his TCA article in the January 2021 issue). I completed a full report of my analysis of these data, along with data from Statistics Canada and ISED, which is published on the my FoxMikeHotel.com website as Operating Patterns Among Canadian Amateurs: Results from the RAC Survey 2021. This article is taken from that full report. Future papers will contain other elements of this survey.

Here I show how central some operating activities are and how others, and while ardently pursued by some, are much more niche concerns in the overall ham radio community. These results are important for both RAC and the rank-and-file amateur in Canada to know. It also helps define markets for product manufacturers (e.g., satellite equipment, etc.) as well as provide a benchmark for survey data collection in other countries on their amateur radio population.

A total of 39 operating activities were presented to respondents during the survey, asking the respondent for a declaration of their involvement. These specific activities widely ranged from casual operating to sophisticated telemetry data modes.

I sorted these responses into a bar chart from highest to lowest percent participation in the survey (Figure 1; click image for larger version). Here are the results by importance to hams in the survey. Note that individuals engage in more than one activity.

Dominant Operating Activities. While the median percent participation in all these activities is about 17 percent, the activities with the highest engagement are clear relative to this baseline. It should be little surprise that casual operating and voice modes are the top activities. Three activities reach a majority level of participation: casual operations, using traditional voice transmissions, and digital modes. This is not shocking but the level of use in digital transmission might be a surprise to most readers.

Over two-thirds (70%) operate in what they consider a casual style. Traditional voice modes, like SSB, AM or FM, are second (59%). What may be a surprise is where digital modes rank: in third place (52%). Fully one-half of Canadian amateurs now operate digital modes. This considerably out-ranks the venerable and original mode of CW (32%) where only a third say they now use Morse Code for communication. With local (46%) and HF rag-chewing (37%) registering at double the median participation rate, it is clear that hams in Canada, at times, just enjoy chatting with others. A more formal style, Net participation, is engaged in by some 43 percent.

Contesting and Chasing DX. Contesting as a pursuit is popular among a smaller group of less than one-third in size (29%). But new forms of “contesting” have emerged through portable operations such as POTA, SOTA and related activities outside the usual shack (37%).¹ Fox-hunting is followed by almost one-in-ten (9%) Canadian hams. Low power QRP operations, regardless of location, is popular in about one-fifth (23%). Mobile operation is on par with local rag-chewing in popularity (47%). Operating Special Event Stations gets about 15 percent (14.9%) engaged. Thus, the emergence of portable operating, especially in combination with formal log-submissions via Parks or Summits on the Air, has surpassed in numbers of practitioners in the traditional contesting operations. This may be a shock to some in the contesting community who have been part of the establishment of amateur radio activities for decades. These objective survey results document evidence to the contrary.²

Pursuing distant contacts (DXing) is as popular as, for instance, checking into various Nets. Some 42 percent identify as DXers. The related activity of collecting QSL cards per se falls in at only a 20 percent level of engagement. (The electronic QSL records, such as LoTW, eQSL, etc., may have supplanted paper cards for many hams.) As could be expected with the investment in money and time commitment, being involved in DXpeditions themselves is rare (5%).

Public Service. Public service in emergency communications engages about a third (37%) and more general similar activities (30%). Related to this includes weather and storm monitoring (14%). Formal traffic handling (6.2%) maintains a small but dedicated group. Drone operations might be considered in the public service arena. While it’s a new technology for amateur radio, there is a nominal set of hams in the survey (5%) who say they use it. The venerable APRS network is used by a quarter of operators (25.2%).³ Taken together, there is a significant share of Canadian amateurs engaged in emergency and related public service activities.

Building Devices.Designing and building amateur radio equipment, especially antennas, captures a surprising share of activity. Antenna construction is the third most popular activity result at 47 percent. Homebrewing and kit-building is an activity of over a third of these respondents (36%). The restoration of classic rigs and putting them on the air attract a small group (13%) but one more highly attractive to hams than a dozen other aspects of the hobby. The homebrewing roots of the hobby appear to remain alive and well.

Elmering and Coaching. The mentoring and coaching of other hams, especially newly licensed ones, is a practice that takes time. It may not be for every amateur operator. Only 17 percent (17.3%) report engaging in this activity. Related engagement for youth involves several activities, such as JOTA, TDOTA and YOTA, and garners about 8 percent of hams in Canada into their support.

Space and Satellites.Various aspects of amateur radio in space are popular. Contacting the International Space Station (ARISS) is now an attraction for many (14%). Satellite operations in general are comparable in their share of practitioners (16%). Bouncing signals off of the moon (EME) is a specialty of some 5 percent of these hams. Using amateur radio for radio astronomy, a crossover field for astronomy proper, has a small contingent (3%) of followers.

Shortwave Listening. Many amateur operators began as shortwave listeners. Over a quarter (27%) in this survey report being engaged in SWL activities. This is on par, by comparison, with formal contesting or QRP operations. Perhaps the reader is somewhat surprised by this result. SWLing is nonetheless as or more popular than contesting, public service or QRP operating.

Niche Activities. A number of miscellaneous activities may not fit into these broader sets of activities. These include: remote operations (10.2%), VHF/UHF weak signal operations (17%), off-road communications (8.2%), high altitude ballooning (2.6%) and telemetry (2.4%). Each of these may fit into other larger activities but stand on their own in this survey. These results serve as a baseline for future surveys repeating these activity questions so that their growth may be objectively determined.

A related question is just how many different activities do Canadian ham operators engage in? In other words, how specialized is the hobby? The total number of activities that RAC Survey 2021 participants reported reflects just how active each ham operator is regardless of the activity’s specific focus. It can theoretically range from 0-38 in total.

Total Number of Activities. A sum of all activities by age group is shown in the accompanying chart as a histogram (left) and by age group (right) in a bar chart (Figure 2; click image for larger version). Since we have no data with which to compare the total portfolio of an amateur operator’s activities, it’s important to examine how Canadian hams vary in pursuing them.⁴

Survey respondents say they participate in as few as one and as many as 29 different activities. The median number is nine. The left panel shows that there is a skew to the right side of the distribution where the most highly active hams are located. This shows that may hams do just a few things while a smaller group do very many activities. One might ask is this extreme activity related to the age of the amateur operator?

The right panel shows that the medians (dark bar in the box) do not vary much across each age group. There is some change from the teens to the thirty-year-old group but the pattern smooths out from there.

These hams are not followed as they “age,” so we cannot truly speak about more specialization occurring from the teen years into middle age. It could be the historical period in which each ham got licensed and socialized into the hobby, perhaps by an Elmer coach, that shapes the specific activities. The results here, however, show little change in the overall average portfolio of activities by hams of all age groups. The top group (at 10) is only three higher than the bottom group (at 7). This is a good sign for continuing engagement regardless of age as measured in 2021.

Conclusions

These nationwide survey results show that amateur radio activities in Canada are more than simply alive and well. Some hams are very highly engaged in a wide variety of activities. While it is often remarked that ham radio is a hobby-of-hobbies, the well-entrenched activities of casual QSOs with fellow hams is clearly a common core pastime. These are predominately using voice or digital modes although CW operation is practiced by one-third. Building things, especially antennas, is a very popular activity so the homebrew culture remains active today. Emergency communications and contesting tend to round-out the traditional operating areas.

It also seems clear that Canadian hams may be a diverse lot in terms of how they spend their time in the hobby. Some engage in many more activities than others. I will examine the amount of time spent in the hobby in a future article.

The overall activity levels are not lower among older age groups than younger ones. Age does not appear to impact the average of the simple number of reported activities. But it may be that Canadian hams of different ages do vary in the specific sets of activities which may shape the contours of the hobby in the decades to come. That will be the focus of my next article using these national survey data collected by RAC which will provide a clearer picture of how age-graded some activities are today.

Notes:

1. It is debatable by many as to whether these constitute “contesting.” The participants and supporting organizations do keep score of contacts and submitted logs. They issue milestone awards. I consider them akin to contest activities because of these shared characteristics regardless of their recognized status as such.

2.In the Appendix of the full report, it is shown that about two-thirds of QRPers operate portably (64%) but a similar percentage of portable operators say they do not operate QRP (62%). We cannot be sure within this survey instrument whether these are simultaneous activities or not so keep that in mind.

3. We note that, somehow, the oft-heard critique that an amateur activity “isn’t real ham radio” if the Internet is involved skips over APRS. This activity is not possible without the Internet’s role in the system.

4. I will examine the time spent on specific modes by frequency band in a following article. This will complement this section on activity participation.

Listening to the shortwave commercial stations (along with CB radio) has been a key gateway activity for entry into amateur radio. That was back when commercial shortwave was vibrant and perhaps in its heyday. There is still a very active set of SWLs contributing to the popular SWLing.com website and the legacy work by the well-known Van Horn family to just name a couple. The Spectrum Monitor publishes information about shortwave listening, too. Of course, the Grand Daddy publication, the World Radio TV Handbook is still around. But do amateur operators still listen to the shortwave radio bands? In this article, I want to address the question I just raised with a clear answer: They still do in Canada!

The Radio Amateurs of Canada (RAC) fielded a national survey of Canadian hams in 2021. A total of 2,089 responses were received, of which 1,630 (78%) were from RAC members. Approximately one-third of all RAC members took the time to complete the survey. This is an example of “voluntary response sample” and is not a probability survey. The final report compared responses to known population characteristics which suggested that the realized sample data is generally representative of Province and license characteristics. I’ve just completed a full report from the data which is available on my FoxMikeHotel.com website. The results on shortwave listening are the focus of this article.

The results show that indeed Canadian amateurs listen to the shortwave frequencies outside of ham radio bands. Out of 38 specific operating activities, over a fourth (28.8%) of Canadian amateurs said they are involved in shortwave listening in a typical month. This was ranked 16^th out of 38, ahead of QRP operations, Elmering, weather spotting, and other activities thought to be popular in amateur radio. This result may be surprising to the reader. But my further analysis shows a clearer picture of how traditional shortwave listing activity is integrated with other ham activities.

I have included in Figure 1 a map of all license-holders in Canada from the amateur radio regulator, ISED. The provided licensee address was georeferenced to the street-level for the vast majority and city-level for the remainder. There is also a bar chart showing how SWLing varies by Province.

Amateurs in Canada are concentrated all along the Southern border and in the urban centers of the Southeastern seaboard. There is another concentration on the Western coast near Vancouver. For the survey results, the bar chart in the bottom panel of Figure 1 illustrates how shortwave listening varies. A majority of hams in Newfoundland and the Northwest Territory use shortwave radio for listening. Those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba round out those Provinces above the overall survey mark of 28.8 percent. Excluding Nunavut Province with only 2 survey respondents, the lowest engagement in SWLing is Alberta. The remaining Provinces are about equal, in the lower twenty-percent figure.

Do these results make sense? The physical isolation of the two highest Provinces makes using shortwave broadcasts very practical in many ways. But there is more to it as I investigated whether SWLing is a more obscure activity in ham radio or is it more integrated into portfolio of things that current amateur operators do today?

In Table 1, I summarize my crosstabulation of shortwave listening by other activities (some 37 tables). The three groups summarized in the table reflect whether there was a statistically significant relationship between the two activities and, if so, whether SWLing was greater or less when the ham said they participate in the comparison activity. If there is no significant relationship, then shortwave listening is about the same whether the other activity is engaged in or not. If shortwave listening is a surprising yet obscure activity, there would be few other activities associated with it. Or, perhaps there might be no relationship at all with a random assortment of hams tuning into to those bands.

What the results in Table 1 demonstrate is how significantly integrated shortwave listening is with a number of activities central to the hobby. There are only seven activities without an association and one with a negative relationship. Contesters tend to pursue SWLing significantly less. This is the opposite, however, of what DXers report. Ham operators who listen to shortwave bands also practice a variety of popular activities in their practice of the hobby. These findings tend to remove any doubt as to whether listening to shortwave radio bands is fully an integrated part of contemporary amateur radio in Canada.

Another question about these results is whether it is simply a residual activity of the large Baby Boom cohort? Should this be the case, SWLing is likely to age out of existence over the next couple of decades. If so, shortwave listening would be highest among the most senior survey respondents and lowest among the youngest.

In Figure 2, I constructed a line chart of shortwave usage by age group. There is a clear downward trend as SWLing is highest among younger hams than more senior ones. The significance test suggests that this overall age pattern is not significant. The result is that the survey result of a quarter or more of Canadian hams engaging in shortwave listening is not a holdover of amateurs from a previous era of the hobby as younger hams.

Even with there being a non-significant trend in opposition to the Baby Boomer remnant hypothesis, I examined how long these hams had been licensed (tenure) and a complementary question in the survey regarding long many years they had been active. Perhaps it is not age per se but length of experience as a licensed or active ham that might influence whether nor not shortwave listening is attractive. These results, too, showed almost no difference regarding shortwave listening and length of experience or activity in the hobby. This are positive findings for shortwave band usage outside of amateur radio.

To further assess how shortwave listening might be linked to other factors, I compared the rural-to-urban locations of amateurs in the survey. There are no significant differences even when compared within these Provinces. The rural-to-urban locale does not explain why some Provinces have higher shortwave listening levels than others.

To conclude, these are somewhat unexpected findings based upon the rhetoric that ham radio operators tell themselves in the public sphere. We frequently hear that shortwave listening is passe, that the commercial and government broadcasters are retreating, and so forth. These may be factually the case from the supply-side of non-ham shortwave transmissions. But the hams in Canada do listen to shortwave broadcasts or one type or another in addition to participating in the core set of activities that comprises amateur radio. Contesting is the sole specialty that is negatively related to such listening. By contrast, DXers are more likely to listen (30.2% vs 23.6%). There are Provincial variations in listening but no patterns within any of them that vary along the rural-to-urban continuum.

The relationship of SWLing to the rest of the amateur radio hobby’s activities appears well-integrated. While the broadcast sector of the shortwave industry is at a low ebb right now, amateur radio in Canada still embraces listening to the non-ham bands. We do not know how this national survey of Canadian amateurs may compare to those of other nations. However, it is the sole survey of which I am aware that measures the activities of amateur radio operators in such detail. Until we do have comparative surveys, the RAC Survey 2021 is our only objective insight into ham radio activities.

Some readers may view these surprising results through their own “personal windshield” of listening experiences. “Why, I don’t know any hams who listen to shortwave broadcasts,” they might say. Others could counter, “Well, we need some “good” survey data on this issue.” I’ve spent a career conducting surveys, teaching survey research methods to PhD students (and fellow faculty), and advising some of the largest survey organizations in the world, such as NORC at the University of Chicago, the SRC at the University of Michigan, and the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service to name a few. The RAC Survey of 2021 is not a high quality statistical probability sample costing a few hundred thousand of dollars. But it is the best one I’ve seen to date on a national scale with behavioral measures of amateur radio operators. So while the reader’s experiences on SWLing might indeed be differ, it is the aggregate picture that we have never had national level results like those in the RAC Survey 2021. Do they apply to the U.S.? Well, would you rather go just with your personal windshield to generalize or take the picture these results present as our best guesstimate for similar behavior in the States?

Since the previous blog post got out and syndicated via AmateurRadio.com, I’ve had inquiries about how to go about building an effective relationship with a local library system. Some clubs have already done this but focusing on emergency communications activities. The ARRL tends to call these “served agencies.” This may be with a local Emergency Management Agency, hospitals, area Red Cross agency, or local governments. As I’ve written here before, why not think of other organizations as educational “served agencies”? That might be a good start!

Back in January (2024), I led a Forum at the Capital City Hamfest in Jackson MS on developing strategic partnerships with public libraries. We had representatives from the Madison County (MS) Library System and the Director and Vice Director of the Delta Division of the ARRL on the Panel. Here is an updated slide deck of that Forum discussion. The interested reader might use this as a jumping-off point to take the ball and start dribbling (see last slide!).

Download PDF here.