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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 25 0218 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 – 24 July 2016

Solar activity was low on 18-20 and 22 July with multiple C-class flares from Regions 2565 (N04,L=175, class/area Dho/320 on 16 July) and 2567 (N05, L=166, class/area Dki/380 on 21 July). The largest flare during that period was a C4.6 from Region 2567 at 20/2215 UTC. Moderate solar levels were observed on 21 and 24 July with four M-class flares observed from Region 2567. The largest flare during that period was an M2.0 observed at 24/0620 UTC. Activity reached high levels on 23 July with three M-class flares from Region 2567. The first was an M5.0, which peaked at 23/0211 UTC. The second was an M7.6/2b flare with an associated 310 sfu Tenflare. The final was an M5.5/3b, which peaked 15 minutes later at 23/0531 UTC had accompanying Type II (729 km/s shock velocity) and Type IV radio emissions, as well as a 900 sfu Tenflare. Two CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery lifting off the west limb at 23/0524 UTC and 23/0548 UTC. Both CMEs were determined to not have an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a slight enhancement to near 1 pfu was observed at 23/0725 UTC due to the flare activity from early on 23 July.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 18-19 July, normal levels from 20-23 July, and moderate levels on 24 July.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 19-20 and 24 July due to the shock arrival of two CMEs. The first shock arrival was likely associated with flare activity on 16 July and was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 19/2310 UTC with a speed of approximately 450 km/s. The Bt component increased from near 5 nT to 17 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deviation of -12 nT. Minor storm levels were observed from 19/2355 until 20/0600 UTC. The second shock enhancement was observed near 24/1450 UTC and likely associated with flare activity on 20 July. Wind speeds increased from near 400 km/s to 470 km/s accompanied by a Bt enhancement from 5 nT to 13 nT and southward deflection of Bz to -9 nT for nearly three hours. Minor storm conditions were observed with this event during the 24/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period. Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 18, 21-23 July with a nominal solar wind.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 July – 20 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the first half of the period with a chance for M-class flares from 05-19 August due to the return of old Region 2567.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with high levels from 05-15 August due to recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 25-27 July due to lingering CME effects and the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active to minor storm levels are expected on 29 July, 03-05, 08, and 10 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 18 0416 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 – 17 July 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 11-14 July with only a few simple sunspot regions. Region 2565 (N05, L=175, class/area Cko/350 on 17 Jul) rotated onto the east limb on 11 July as a simple Hsx spot class with a simple alpha magnetic class. By late on 14 July, another spot group began to emerge behind Region 2565 and was numbered 2567 (N05, L=165, class/area Dhi/330 on 17 Jul). Region 2567 quickly grew to over 300 millionths in area and was initially classified as a beta-gamma-delta magnetic group before some magnetic simplification occurred on 16 July. The region was downgraded to a beta-gamma magnetic class for the remainder of the period. Region 2567 became the most active region during 15-17 July producing 13 C-class flares. However, the close proximity of the two regions, as well as an active inversion line between the two, resulted in several flares to be attributed to Region 2565 on 17 July. The first was a long duration C1/Sf flare at 17/0803 UTC which was responsible for two CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 17/1124 UTC and 17/1248 UTC. The first was a faint asymmetric halo CME while the second was directed mostly off the east limb. Initial WSA-Enlil model output of the events showed a slow transit with effects possible on 21 July. The largest flare of the period, however, was a C6 at 17/2335 UTC which also occurred on the inversion line and was subsequently attributed to Region 2565.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 5,512 pfu observed at 17/1630 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. The majority of the period was under the influence of high speed solar wind streams from a large, positive polarity, polar connected coronal hole as well as an isolated, positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds reached highs around 550 km/s early on 11 July, 650 km/s late on 12 July, and 700 km/s early on 15 July before finally decreasing to around 440 km/s by the end of the period. Total field during the period only managed to reach a maximum of 9 nT at 12/0552 UTC. Prolonged periods of southward Bz reaching -8 nT on 12 July and -6 nT on 14 July resulted in periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 12 July and active periods on 14 July. The rest of the period was at quiet to unsettled levels with quiet conditions observed on 17 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 July – 13 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 18-24 July as Regions 2565 and 2567 transit across the visible disk. Very low levels are expected for 25 Juy-04 August. A return to low levels with a chance for M-class flaring is expected for 05-13 August with the return of Regions 2565 and 2567.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18-19, 23-27 July, and again on 05-13 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remaining forecast period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 19-20, 22-24, 28, 30 July and on 03-08, 10-11 August with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 03-04 and 08 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity. A CME associated with the 17 July long-duration C1 flare is likely to arrive early on 21 July causing unsettled to active levels.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 – 10 July 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 04-06 Jul followed by low levels for the remainder of the period. Region 2561 (S16, L=344, class/area Cro/beta on 07 Jul) produced a C5/Sn flare at 07/0756 UTC. Region 2564 (N09, L=209, class/area Dai/120 on 10 Jul) produced all further C-class activity, the largest a C8/2f at 10/0059 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1435 km/s). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 04-08 Jul and reached high levels on 09-10 Jul following several days of enhanced solar wind speeds with a sequence of coronal holes.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 04-06 Jul with a few isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 07-08 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects followed by unsettled to active conditions on 09 Jul as effects began to subside. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 Jul as CH HSS effects waned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 July – 06 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 24 Jul due to flare potential from Region 2564. Activity is expected to be very low for the remainder of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Jul, 22-27 Jul and 05-06 Aug following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels are expected otherwise.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 11 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 12 Jul as effects continue followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Jul as effects subside. A second CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions on 14-15 Jul with active periods likely on the 14th. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 16-18 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated from 19-24 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 25 Jul to 02 Aug with isolated unsettled periods possible from 28-30 Jul as a few small CH HSS events move past Earth. Minor storms are likely on 03-04 Aug due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS activity, decreasing to active conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled conditions on 06 Aug as effects subside.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 04 0322 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 June – 03 July 2016

Solar activity was very low. The disk was spotless for the entire period with no measurable flare activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 27-30 Jun and dropped to normal to moderate levels for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 27-28 Jun due to diminishing negative polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of the week with an isolated active period on 02/2100-2400 UTC due to effects from a series of coronal holes.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 July – 30 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 04-07, 16-19, and 22-26 Jul following recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels early on 04 Jul followed by quiet conditions through 07 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return from 08-15 Jul with active periods likely on 11-12 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent coronal holes. Quiet conditions are expected to return from 16-18 Jul. Another recurrent CH HSS is expected to cause quiet to unsettled conditions from 19-23 Jul with isolated active periods likely on 19 Jul. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period with unsettled periods possible on 28 and 30 Jul due to recurrent coronal holes.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 27 0346 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 – 26 June 2016

Solar activity was very low during the entire summary period with only B-class flare activity observed. No Earth-directed CMEs occurred.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 21-22 Jun and 25-26 Jun following coronal hole high speed stream events. Normal to moderate levels were observed on the remaining days.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 20-21 Jun. Mostly quiet conditions were observed early on 22 Jun but activity increased after 22/1800 UTC due to enhanced solar wind parameters and unsettled to minor storm levels were observed. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods were observed on 23-24 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 25-26 Jun with an isolated period of active conditions observed from 26/2100-2400 UTC due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 June – 23 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period with a slight chance for C-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 27 Jun to 01 Jul following CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 02-03 Jul as a CIR redistributes electrons. High levels are expected to return from 04-07 Jul following a recurrent CH HSS. Moderate levels are expected from 08-21 Jul followed by moderate to high levels on 22-23 Jul following another recurrent CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled to active levels but decrease to mostly quiet levels by midday on 27 Jun and remain quiet through 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 30 Jun to 05 Jul with isolated active conditions possible on 03 Jul due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected on 06 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 07-12 Jul with minor storms possible on 11 Jul and active periods likely on 12 Jul due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 13-18 Jul with unsettled periods possible on 14-15 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19-21 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS effects with an isolated active period likely on 19 Jul. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 20 0550 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels observed on 13 and 19 June due to a C3 flare at 13/0552 UTC from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June) and a C1 flare at 19/1158 UTC from Region 2558 (N13, L=215, class/area Cso/030 on 19 June). The majority of the B-class activity was caused by Region 2555 (S09, L=274, class/area Cao/080 on 17 June). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period and briefly reached high levels on 19 June with a maximum flux of 1,030 pfu at 19/1640 UTC.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels. Solar wind conditions began the period under a waning positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 620 km/s to around 420 km/s by midday on 14 June. Total field decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT. By late on 14 June, total field increased to 15 nT with the Bz component mostly southward near -14 nT while solar wind increased to a maximum of 772 km/s at 15/0410 UTC, indicative of a co-rotating interaction region followed by another positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 13 June, quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels on 14 June and quiet to G1-Minor storm levels on 15 June. By early on 16 June, total field decreased to around 6 nT with solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range. These conditions continued until 19 June when solar wind speeds decreased to nominal levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 16 and 19 June with quiet to unsettled levels on 17-18 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 June – 16 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 20-22 June, 26 June-01 July, 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 23-27 June, 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July. G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 13 0444 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 – 12 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 06-08 June and again on 10 June. Low levels were reached on 09 June and again from 11-12 June due to C-class flare activity from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June). The largest flare of the period was a C6 at 11/2228 UTC. Region 2552 grew rapidly since its emergence on 07 June to a compact beta-delta magnetic class, but appeared to be in decay by 11 Jun as it neared the NW limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 06 June and again from 11-12 June. High levels were reached from 07-10 June with a peak flux of 1,590 pfu observed at 10/1520 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate geomagnetic storm levels during the period. The period began with solar wind speeds near 650 km/s and total field values near 7 nT while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT under the slowly waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). As a result, mostly active levels and an isolated G2-Moderate storm period were observed during the first half of the UTC day on 06 June. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease to nominal levels by 10 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 07 June with quiet conditions on 08-09 June. By midday on 10 June, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed into a positive (away) sector followed by an increase in total field to 14 nT by late on 10 June. A lesser rise in solar wind speed to near 540 km/s was observed as a positive polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds continued to be elevated in the 450 km/s to 550 km/s range for the rest of the period with total field ranging between 7-10 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active periods on 10-11 June and quiet to unsettled levels on 12 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 June – 09 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17-18 June, 26 June-01 July and 04-07 July in response to CH HSS activity.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 13, 15-17, 22-24, 26-27 June and from 02-03, 07-09 July with G1-Minor storming likely on 02-03 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr