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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 27 0117 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 – 26 July 2015

Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 2389 (S11, L=164, class/area=Dai/80 on 25 Jul) produced three low-level C-class flares throughout the period which were the largest observed events. Region 2389 produced a C1 flare at 24/0315 UTC, a C2/Sf flare at 24/1444 UTC, and a C1 flare at 26/1234 UTC but none of these events resulted in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were Earth-directed. Region 2390 (S15, L=198, class/area=Dac/130 on 26 Jul) underwent moderate penumbral development and increased in magnetic complexity late in the period, but remained largely unproductive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery throughout the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 20, 26 Jul with moderate levels observed on 21-22, and 24-25 Jul. The electron flux decreased to normal levels on 23 Jul in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity attributed to a combination of CME and coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Jul due to a combination of the arrival of the 19 Jul CME (filament eruption) and the onset of a weak positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions were observed at 23/0300-0600 UTC and 23/1800-2100 UTC and G1 storm conditions were observed at 23/0600-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field was at quiet or quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period under an ambient solar wind environment followed by weak CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 July – 22 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the period with a slight chance of M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity between 28 Jul-10 Aug due to the return of Region 2381 (N14, L=074) which produced two M-class flares last rotation.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29 Jul, 01, 07, and 17 Aug with high levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 Aug with active levels expected on 29 Jul, 02, 08-09, and 19 Aug, all in response to the influence of recurrent CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected throughout the remainder of the period under an ambient solar wind environment.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 20 0508 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 July 2015

Solar activity began the period at very low levels on 13 Jul but increased to low levels on 14 Jul with C1 flares from Region 2381 (N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) and 2387 (N17, L=271, class/area Dai/120 on 18 Jul) at 14/0925 UTC and 14/1210 UTC respectively. Very low levels were observed on 15-17 Jul. Ground observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered near N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The associated CME was not geoeffective. Region 2388 (N08, L=024, class/area Cao/020 on 16 Jul) produced a C1 flare at 18/1442 UTC and was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (est speed 418 km/s). A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery erupting from the west limb at 18/1512 UTC with an estimated plane of sky speed of 337 km/s. This event is not expected to be geoeffective. A long duration event (LDE) C2 flare was observed at 19/1040 UTC. The LDE was associated with a 23 degree long filament eruption located in the SW quadrant centered near S32W52. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, revealed a possible weak glancing blow from the northern flank of the SW-directed CME expected to arrive at Earth early on 23 Jul.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 13 Jul. High levels were reached from 14-19 Jul due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 13 Jul due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods were observed from 14-16 Jul as coronal hole effects subsided. Quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 July – 15 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low from 20-27 Jul. Moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 10 Aug due to the return of old Region 2381 followed by a return to very low to low levels for the remainder of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels from 20-22 Jul before an anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME is expected to redistribute. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 23-26 Jul followed by a return to high levels from 27-30 Jul following elevated wind speeds from a combination of the CME and a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High flux levels are expected from 03-05 Aug and 10-15 Aug following recurrent negative and positive polarity high speed streams respectively.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 20 Jul due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS followed by quiet conditions from 21-22 Jul as effects subside. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 23-24 Jul due to a possible glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME followed in close succession by a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail from 25-30 Jul. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, with minor storms likely on 01 Aug when the HSS is at its peak strength. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Minor storm conditions are likely from 06-07 Aug due to another recurrent positive polarity HSS, followed by a steady decrease to active and then unsettled conditions from 08-10 Aug as effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Well, thankfully, this is not happening during this contest weekend: one of the largest sunspot regions during this Sunspot Cycle 24, and one of the biggest in several decades, gave us quite a show, back in October 2014.

Five major X-class (very strong) and a number of moderate and “mild” solar x-ray flares erupted from a single sunspot region – this video covers the time period of October 19-27, 2014, as captured by NASA’s SDO spacecraft. This is from what has been one of the biggest sunspot regions in a number of decades.

Between October 19 and October 27, 2014, a particularly large active region on the Sun dispatched many intense x-ray flares. This region, labeled by NOAA as Active Region (AR) number 12192 (or, simply, NOAA AR 12192, and shortened as AR 2192), is the largest in 24 years (at that point in Solar Cycle 24).

The various video segments track this sunspot region during this period (Oct. 19 – Oct.27, 2014), during which we can see the intense explosions. There are five X-class flares during this time, and NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which watches the sun constantly, captured these images of the event.

Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however — when intense enough — they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel.

When referring to these intense solar eruptions, the letter part of the classification, ‘X’, means, ‘X-class’. This denotes the most intense flares, while the number, after the classification letter, provides more information about its strength. For example, an X2 is twice as intense as an X1, an X3 is three times as intense, and so forth.

Solar Images Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center & SDO

http://SunSpotWatch.com ~ http://NW7US.us

73 de NW7US

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 13 0408 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 – 12 July 2015

Solar activity began at moderate levels. Region 2381 (N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) produced a pair of M-class flares on 06 Jul; an M1/Sn at 06/0844 UTC and an M1/2n at 06/2040 UTC. Activity was low from 07-11 Jul. Region 2381 produced the majority of the low level C-class flares from 07-09 Jul while Region 2385 (N08, L=106, class/area Dao/110 on 11 Jul) produced the C-class flares on 10-11 Jul. Solar activity decreased to very low levels on 12 Jul. Several filament eruptions were observed throughout the week but none of them were on the Sun-Earth line.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with the exception of 09-10 Jul when high levels were reached due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity began the week at active levels due to effects from a waning CH HSS on 06 Jul. Mostly quiet conditions were observed from 07-09 Jul with the exception of isolated unsettled periods on 07 and 09 Jul. Activity increased to active to minor storm levels from 10-11 Jul due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions finished out the period on 12 Jul as CH HSS effects began to subside.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 July – 08 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares from 13-15 Jul. Very low to low activity is expected from 16-26 Jul after Region 2381 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares for the remainder of the period as old Region 2378 (S15, L=084) and Region 2381 return to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13 Jul. Moderate to high levels are expected from 14-17 Jul following CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected to return from 18 Jul-02 Aug. Moderate to high levels are expected again from 03-05 Aug followed by a return to normal to moderate levels from 06-08 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13-14 Jul due to residual CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 15-30 Jul. Quiet to active levels are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug with minor storm levels expected on 01 Aug due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Active to minor storm conditions are expected from 06-07 Aug due to a positive polarity CH HSS followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 08 Aug as effects subside.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 06 0524 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June – 05 July 2015

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels this period. Low levels were observed during the majority of the period with moderate levels observed on 03 July and very low levels on 05 July. The majority of the C-flare activity occurred from Regions 2373 (N16, L=141, class/area Dso/150 on 01 July), 2376 (N13, L=124, class/area Eai/150 on 01 July) and 2378 (S16, L=086, class/area Cso/090 on 04 July). Region 2378 produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC. New Region 2381 (N15, L=073, class/area Dao/100 on 05 July) emerged near the NE limb on 03 July and grew moderately on 05 July, however had not produced significant flare activity by the time of this report. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were noted during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however there was an enhancement from 29-30 July as levels were decaying from the 10 MeV proton event that occurred from 26/0350 UTC through 27/0755 UTC associated with an M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC. Another enhancement to 5 pfu (Below S1-Minor) was observed from 01-02 July, likely due to flare/CME activity from beyond the west limb at 01/1436 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 29 June through 04 July reaching a maximum flux value of 9,670 pfu at 30/1725 UTC. Electron flux decreased to normal levels on 05 July in response to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with solar wind parameters at nominal levels for the majority of the week. Solar wind speeds ranged from 300 km/s to 450 km/s and total field values were between 1 nT and 8 nT. By midday on 04 July, total field, density, solar wind speed and temperature all began to increase indicating the arrival of a CIR preceding the anticipated recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a maximum of 23 nT at 04/1901 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -22 nT at 04/1911 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from the mid 300 km/s to 604 km/s by 04/2023 UTC before declining to just over 500 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm periods late on 04 July though early on 05 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 July – 01 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 06 July through 24 July with the return of old Regions 2367 (S20, L=002) and 2371 (N13, L=302). Very low to low levels are expected from 25 July through 01 August.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 07-08 July and again from 12-15 July in response to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 06 July as a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected from 10-11 July due to the arrival of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected once again from 31 July through 01 August due to the return of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 29 0647 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 – 28 June 2015

Solar activity was at low to high levels. The period began at high levels when Region 2371 (N13, L=302, class/area Fkc/1180 on 21 June) produced an M6/2b flare at 22/1823 UTC with an associated Castelli-U spectral burst, Type II radio sweep (1480 km/s), 1000 sfu Tenflare, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with an approximate speed of 1047 km/s. Solar activity returned to high levels again on 25 June as Region 2371 produced a long-duration M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC with associated Type II (2056 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, 3800 sfu Tenflare, and an asymmetric full halo CME with an approximate speed of 1500 km/s. Region 2371 remained relatively quiet and stable after 25 June, only producing low-level C-class flaring for the rest of the period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the beginning of the period. The event began at 21/2135 UTC, likely associated with an M2/1n flare at 21/0142 UTC from Region 2371, reached a maximum flux value of 1070 pfu at 22/1900 UTC and ended 24/0705 UTC. A brief enhancement to the S3 (Strong) levels was observed due to a shock enhancement from the arrival of the 21 June CME. Another greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 26/0350 UTC in association with an M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC from Region 2371, reached a maximum of 22 pfu (S1-Minor) at 27/0030 UTC and ended at 27/0755 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high levels through the period with the exception of 23 June. A maximum flux of 26,376 pfu was observed at 24/1620 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to severe storm conditions. At 22/0451 UTC, a small shock was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft. Total field increased from 8 nT to 17 nT with a corresponding solar wind increase from 360 km/s to 431 km/s. The shock was associated with the arrival of the 19 June CME caused by a filament eruption in the SE quadrant observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at 19/0500 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) of 19 nT (Guam) was observed at 22/0545 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active levels. At 22/1759 UTC, another shock was observed in ACE data from the 21 June CME associated with a double peak M2 flare from Region 2371 at 21/0142 UTC. Total field increased to a maximum of 41 nT at 22/1935 UTC, solar wind speed increased to 737 km/s and the Bz component went negative to -39 nT at 22/1850 UTC. A prolonged period of mostly southward Bz occurred between 23/0013 UTC and 23/1246 UTC reaching as high as -25 nT. An SI of 48 nT (Hartland) was observed at 21/1650 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with minor to major storm levels with severe storm periods observed between 22/1800-2100 UTC and 23/0000-0600 UTC. At 24/1258 UTC, the 22 June CME associated with the M6/2b flare on 22 June was observed in ACE data. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 550 km/s to around 760 km/s with a relatively weak increase in total field from 5 nT to 13 nT. The Bz component was mostly positive during this event with negative values reaching a maximum of -11 nT between 25/0547 UTC and 25/1357 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with only quiet to active periods on 24 June, but increased to minor to major storm levels mid-period on 25 June. Another CME associated with the M7/3b flare on 25 June arrived at 27/0223 UTC at the ACE spacecraft. Solar wind speeds increased from near 475 km/s to 860 km/s before slowly decreasing to 480 km/s by the end of the day. Total field reached a maximum of 13 nT at 27/0304 UTC and the Bz component was variable between +9 nT and -7 nT. As a result, the geomagnetic field never increased beyond unsettled conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June – 25 July 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity from 30 June through 24 July with the return of old Regions 2365 (S13, L=079) on 30 June, 2367 (S20, L=002) on 05 July, and 2371 (N13, L=302) on 11 July.

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from 11 July through 24 July with the return of old Region 2371 to the visible disk.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 29-30 Jun and again from 08-19 July due to residual CME effects and recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels from 06-08 July and again from 11-12 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 22 0548 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 – 21 June 2015

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Weak to mid-level C-class flares were observed on 15-17 Jun from Regions 2360 (N15, L=129, class/area Eac/220 on 12 Jun), 2367 (S20, L=002, class/area Ekc/400 on 15 Jun), 2268 (S06, L=100, class/area Bxo/010 on 14 Jun) and 2371 (N13, L=302, class/area Fkc/1180 on 21 Jun). Activity increased to moderate levels (R1-minor) on 18 Jun. Old Region 2365 (S13, L=079) produced a long duration event (LDE) M1 flare at 18/0127 UTC. At 18/1736 UTC, Region 2371 produced an M3/1n LDE with associated Type IV and Tenflare (2200 sfu) radio emissions. Associated with this event was an asymmetric, full-halo CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1724 UTC.

19 Jun saw a return to low levels with weak to high-level C-class flares observed from Region 2371. At about 19/0500 UTC, a large filament eruption was observed in the SSE quadrant of the disk. Associated with this eruption was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0845 UTC. Moderate levels returned on 20 Jun with an M1/if flare observed at 20/0648 UTC. 21 Jun saw a total of 4 M-class class flares. Region 2371 produced an M2/1n flare at 21/0142 UTC with associated Type II (682 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. Also associated with this event was a full-halo CME. Shortly afterward, this same region produced an M2.6 x-ray event. At 21/0944 UTC, Region 2367 produced an M3/2b flare followed by an M1 x-ray event at 21/1820 UTC.

A pair of 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The first event began at 18/1135 UTC, reached a maximum of 16 pfu at 18/1445 UTC and ended at 19/0230 UTC. This event was associated with the M1 flare from old Region 2365 observed at 18/0127 UTC. The second event began at 21/2035 UTC and reached at peak of near 50 pfu at the end of the summary period and was still rising. This event was associated with the M1 flare from Region 2367 observed at 21/1820 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels through the entire summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels through the period. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 15-17 Jun with isolated active periods observed on 15 and 17 Jun. This activity was due to positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated wind speeds of near 600 km/s early on 15 Jun decreasing to about 450 km/s by the end of the 17th. Total field ranged between 4-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive (away) orientation. Predominately quiet conditions were observed on 18 Jun through late on 21 June. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 450 km/s early on 18 June to near 275 km/s by 21/1540 UTC. During this same time frame, total field ranged between 1-6 nT, Bz varied between +4 nT to -3 nT and phi remained mostly positive. After 21/1540 UTC, wind speed increased to about 360 km/s, Bt increased to 12 nT, Bz varied between +8 nT to -7 nT and phi briefly rotated to a negative (towards) sector. This deviation indicated a possible co-rotating interaction region in advance of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 June – 18 July 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate). Active Regions 2367 and 2371, and the return of old Region 2365 on 30 Jun, are expected to keep activity levels enhanced through the outlook period.

The 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at the S1 (minor) to S2 (moderate) levels through 24 Jun. Effects from the 21 Jun M1 flare, coupled with multiple shocks from the 18, 19 and 21 Jun CMEs, are expected to keep proton flux above event levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 22 Jun through 06 Jul. Moderate to high levels are expected on 07-18 Jul due to CH HSS effects.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels (G1-G3, minor-strong) on 22-24 Jun. This activity is due to the expected arrival of the three CMEs from 18, 19 and 21 Jun. Unsettled to active periods are expected on 06-08 Jul, 12-13 Jul and 18 Jul, along with minor storm periods (G1-minor) on 05 and 11 Jul, due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Predominately quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr