This coming week might be a significant one for the progress of Solar Cycle 25. Going forward, the next two months should give us a good indication of just exactly where our latest cycle is heading.

Cycle 25 is now in its 21st month, having started in November 2019. 

One way to gauge the growth of a cycle is by observing the radio energy it emits at 2800MHz (10.7cm).

This ‘solar flux’ value changes from day to day and from hour to hour, depending mainly on the number of sunspots and their level of activity.

The 2800MHz real-time solar flux units are published three times per day, after being measured at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbia. The ‘observed values’ are the actual measured levels while the ‘adjusted values’ reflect compensations for things such as the Sun-Earth distance, background sky noise, solar bursts, atmospheric absorption etc. Of the two values, the ‘adjusted value’ is more descriptive of the Sun’s true behaviour.

Although far from definitive, comparisons with previous cycles may shed some light on Cycle 25’s future. We should remember that almost all predictions from various solar physicists called for another very weak cycle, some saying even weaker than Cycle 24, the poorest in the past 100 years. Of the many predictions, one that varied substantially from the pack was one from Dr. Scott McIntosh’s team.

Their paper called for a very strong cycle, possibly the strongest one ever. We should know shortly which path our latest cycle will favor.

Let’s compare some of the things now known for sure about Cycle 25 with Cycle 19 (strongest ever recorded), Cycles 21, 22 and 23 (all strong, above average cycles that produced several winters of exciting 6m F2 propagation) and the recently-completed Cycle 24 (weakest in past 100 years).

A good indicator of a cycle’s possible future strength is the time that it takes to ramp-up and to really start building. Usually weaker cycles take much longer to do this so one way of looking at Cycle 25’s future might be to see how long it took each of these cycles to reach an adjusted solar flux value of 100. 

Strong cycles are usually fast risers once growth is triggered. Most cycles start with flux values in the 60s and dither around for months or years with short surges into the 80s and 90s before dropping back again. A flux of 100 seems significant when looking at previous cycles as it is often the level where steady upward growth really begins, with fewer surges to a lower level.

Cycle 19

The ‘grandaddy’ of them all. It began in April ‘54 and eventually peaked with a SSN (Smoothed Sunspot Number) of 285. The highest solar flux reached was 345. Cycle 19 took 14 months to hit a solar flux of 100, then dropped back to the 80s for several weeks before ramping up once again. This time it just kept growing. Both hemispheres of the Sun were at similar levels of activity resulting in a cycle with a very strong single peak.

Cycle 21 

Another strong cycle following a weak Cycle 20. It peaked with a SSN of 233 and produced a high flux level of 365.
Cycle 21 took 16 months to reach a solar flux of 100, dropping down to 70s and 80s for three months before taking off.

Cycle 22 

A robust cycle as well with a SSN of 213 and a peak flux of 335. Cycle 22 took 12 months to reach a solar flux of 100, dropping down again for a month before taking off.

Cycle 23

The third in a row of strong cycles but not as strong as the previous two. Cycle 23 reached a SSN of 180 and a flux high of 285 and like the others, produced a lot of exciting fireworks on 50MHz.
It took Cycle 23 just 3 months to reach a flux of 100 where it remained for a week before dropping back to the 70s and 80s for another 10 months. It repeated this 'surge to 100' pattern several times for 8 more months before taking off. Perhaps the original spurt at 3 months was flare-induced and a bit of an anomaly.

Cycle 24

The just-completed weakest cycle in the past 100 years, Cycle 24 had a SSN of 116 and a peak flux of 253. It took Cycle 24 a whopping 26 months to reach a solar flux of 100.

Cycle 25

Our present cycle took just 12 months to reach a flux of 100, remaining above this level for 10 days with a peak value of 115 solar flux units. Dropping back below 100, it remained there for 10 months before this week's present climb back above 100.

This is where we are today, with the solar flux presently at 104, after climbing steadily for the past two weeks. This is an impressive  increase of 30 flux units during the past 27-day rotation period!

Today's Sun

From the above comparison, Cycle 25’s early spurt to a flux level of 100 is very encouraging, while its 10 month sag shortly thereafter was a little discouraging for those expecting things to keep rising.

From looking at previous cycle behaviors, this should now be Cycle 25’s time to continue rising. If the cycle is to be a strong one, it will need to show some continued growth in the next few months. However, one thing seems almost certain ... we are not looking at a repeat of Cycle 24.

All cycles seem content to play in the 70-80 flux zone until triggered into steady upward growth. This triggering or ‘terminator’ event appears to be related to the final end of the previous sunspot cycle and more particularly, to the end of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic (Hale) cycle. The arrival of the terminator is a crucial component in the McIntosh papers and identifying its appearance is difficult, until it becomes obvious by a surge in cycle growth. This is the stage we are at presently.

Cycle 25’s original strong growth surge to well above 100 flux units, just 12 months after starting, had many wondering if this was indeed the terminator’s arrival ... but steady upward growth did not continue. 

This week’s second surge past 100, has posed the question once again. If indeed this is the terminator’s arrival then we should see a continued increase in growth within the next 27-day solar rotation. If this transpires now, it would tend to indicate that Cycle 25 will be above average in strength. If flux values drop again for several months, this would not be a positive sign. For solar observers, the next two months will be of great interest.

The McIntosh et al. paper describes the relationship between the spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles. Their bold prediction relies on this relationship. Low amplitude cycles correspond to widely separated terminators while strong cycles have shorter separations.

The period between terminators (end of previous cycle’s activity) reflects this characteristic.
Monster Cycle 19 had a spacing of just 9.8 years (118 months), while weak Cycle 24 had a 12.8 year (154 months) wait for the terminator. The spacing for strong Cycles 21, 22 and 23 averaged 10.5 years.

The last terminator event was 10.75 years (129 months) ago so the urgency for an imminent arrival, signalling an above average cycle is evident.

One more look at the terminator arrival in terms of a cycle’s start time may also be of interest.

Cycle 19’s terminator event occurred in its 21 month. Cycle 21 waited for 24 months. Cycle 22 and Cycle 23 both waited 27 months, while weak Cycle 24 had a long wait of 37 months. The average wait for all strong cycles (including Cycle 19) is 24.75 months. Excluding Cycle 19 results in a 26 month average. So far, Cycle 25 has been waiting 21 months. This may be another positive indicator of a large cycle if the terminator arrives shortly.

Closely following the level of solar activity and more particularly the growth of a new solar cycle has always been a fascinating aspect of my radio activities. I’m also surprised at the number of hams who seem to take little interest or have little understanding of what is happening on the Sun that plays such a crucial role in the propagation of our signals.

I’ll be following the daily reports on the Sun’s growth carefully over the next few weeks. It's encouraging to see new sunspot regions forming quickly and today another new active area is rotating into view on the eastern (left side) limb. Can you find the new spot in today’s image?

Let’s all hope that Cycle 25 is about to ramp-up for real this time. If the flux remains above 100 going into the fall, we should see some nice transcontinental activity on 28MHz as was the case for Cycle 25's initial flirtation with a flux of 115 in the early winter of 2020. Hopefully the next few rotations will be very exciting!

From time to time, the question is raised about using radio equipment in multiple radio services. One common example is a licensed radio amateur that wants one radio to cover the Family Radio Service (FRS), General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS), and the 2m/70cm ham bands. Some people also want the Multi-Use Radio Service (MURS)…or maybe even marine VHF or aircraft VHF. The thinking goes that if one radio can transmit and receive on all these frequencies and that person is authorized to use those frequencies, then one radio can do it all.

This seems like a reasonable objective but the problem is that the FCC has a few rules and regulations that come into play.  This leads to an important note: I am writing about the FCC rules and regs here…you may choose to ignore them but that’s on you.

Part 97: Amateur Radio Service

First, the good news. The Amateur Radio Service, governed by FCC Part 97, has very few restrictions on the type of equipment you can use. Heck,  you can build a transceiver from parts and put it on the air. So the ham rules are not going to be a major limitation.

Part 95: FRS, GMRS and MURS

FRS, GMRS, and MURS radios are governed by FCC Part 95.  Section 95.591 says this about FRS radios:

§ 95.591 Sales of FRS combination radios prohibited.

Effective September 30, 2019, no person shall sell or offer for sale hand-held portable radio equipment capable of operating under this subpart (FRS) and under any other licensed or licensed-by-rule radio services in this chapter (devices may be authorized under this subpart with part 15 unlicensed equipment authorizations).

Section 95.1761 says this about GMRS transmitters:

(c) No GMRS transmitter will be certified for use in the GMRS if it is equipped with a frequency capability not listed in § 95.1763, unless such transmitter is also certified for use in another radio service for which the frequency is authorized and for which certification is also required. No GMRS transmitter will be certified for use in the GMRS if it is equipped with the capabilities to operate in services that do not require equipment certification, such as the Amateur Radio Service. All frequency determining circuitry (including crystals) and programming controls in each GMRS transmitter must be internal to the transmitter and must not be accessible from the exterior of the transmitter operating panel or from the exterior of the transmitter enclosure.

(d) Effective December 27, 2017, the Commission will no longer issue a grant of equipment authorization for hand-held portable unit transmitter types under both this subpart (GMRS) and subpart B of this part (FRS).

Similarly, MURS radios have this restriction (Part 95.2761):

(c) A grant of equipment certification will not be issued for MURS transmitters capable of operating under both this subpart (MURS) and under any other subparts of this chapter (except part 15).

The FCC is saying (requiring) that FRS, GMRS and MURS radios must work on their designated frequencies and nothing else. At one time, it was legal to sell a combination FRS/GMRS radio but the FCC has specifically removed that option. Part 95.1761 seems to leave an opening for a GMRS radio that is also certified for use in another radio service, but that is a very thin opening and it specifically excludes the Amateur Radio Service.

Now, why would the FCC put these restrictions in the regulations? The answer is pretty simple: these radio services are intended to be used by everyday, non-technical folks. The radios need to be simple to use and not include the capability to wander off onto any old frequency. Hence, the rules lock down the frequencies that the radios can use.

(As a side note, this regulatory approach is good for amateur radio. Imagine if FRS radios had Channel 30 set up to transmit on 146.52 MHz, with a note in the manual that says “only use this channel if you have an amateur radio license.” We would have a crapton of unlicensed operating on 2 meters.)

Part 90: Private Land Mobile Radio Services

Part 90 regulates a broad range of land mobile radio, including public service, police/fire, search and rescue, forestry, utilities, and businesses. Licensing is very specific under Part 90. A radio license will specify a particular set of frequencies allowed, specific power levels and emission types, and even the allowed operating location of the radios.

Radios designed for Part 90 are usually programmed by a radio tech to operate only those specific frequencies that a licensee is authorized to use. This results in a relatively simple operating set up with the user just selecting from the preset channels on the radio. Part 90 radios normally cover a wide range of frequencies so that the manufacturer and the radio shop can sell one radio model to any licensed user.

In many cases, these Part 90 radios cover the adjacent amateur bands, such as 2m and 70cm. (For example, the Anytone AT-D878UV is Part 90 certified and covers 140-174 MHz and 400-480 MHz.)   So this does open up the possibility of using a Part 90 radio under a Part 90 license and using it on the ham bands. A typical scenario is when a Search and Rescue member has a Part 90 radio set up to use the S&R frequency as well as the 2m/70cm amateur bands. The key to this is starting with a radio that is Part 90 certified and then programming it for the amateur band.  Of course, you need to be authorized to use the Part 90 frequency and have an amateur radio license.

Getting Creative on Radio Configuration

A few years ago, Anytone Tech tried to market the TERMN-8R VHF/UHF radio as legal for the ham bands, GMRS, MURS and Part 90 use.  An early review of this radio is here on the PD0AC blog. Basically, the radio had three distinct operating modes: GMRS, MURS, and Commercial/Normal. Initially, the FCC approved the radio but later took a closer look and canceled the authorization. The TERMN-8R is still available but without the three modes. It is marketed as a Part 90 radio that also does the amateur bands.

I recently became aware of the Anytone AT-779UV which is sold in the USA as a Part 95 GMRS radio. However, using the programming software, the radio can be configured to cover the 2m and 70cm amateur bands or a much broader range of frequencies (136-174 & 400-470 MHz). If you change the radio configuration to operate on the ham bands (or wider), the radio is no longer Part 95 certified. The configuration via software takes some knowledge and effort so it is not a mode that you can easily switch back and forth. It is really no different than other software-programmable radios.

Wrap It Up

So there you go, your dream of One Radio To Rule Them All (FRS, GMRS, MURS, and the 2m/70cm ham bands) is not going to happen. At least not legally. You can configure a radio to do this…but it will not meet FCC regulations.  However, you can configure a Part 90 radio to operate legally on Part 90 frequencies and on the amateur bands.

The post One Radio To Rule Them All (Ham, GMRS, FRS, MURS)? appeared first on The KØNR Radio Site.

Hello and welcome to the 427th installment of Linux in the Ham Shack. In this short topics episode, the hosts discuss the attrition present in CW contesting, grants for youths getting their ham radio licenses, the Election Day radio contest, Docker, SuperTuxKart, Fedora, Linux on Macs and much more. Thank you for listening and have a great week.

73 de The LHS Crew

In Canada and the U.S. this is a long weekend (Labour Day Weekend) with Monday being a holiday.  I was able to spend a little time on the radio in the late afternoon a few days of the long weekend. I was able to spend a few hours on both Saturday and Sunday.  For the most part I spent my time on 20m CW and both days the bands seemed to not be too busy. As I spent some time on the radio I found the bands were not that quiet. It was deep QSB that was working its magic to drop an S9 signal just at or below the noise floor. 

Having a radio with a waterfall is a great advantage and my Icom 7610's waterfall came in very handy showing me a signal before they would fade away to nothingness. I heard 4X6FR from Israel calling CQ and I was surprised he did not have a pile up. I gave him a few calls but he answered other stations.  Not a problem I would just wait it out. This is where the QSB kicked in and within a very short time I found only static and no 4X6FR!  The 7610 has 2 independent receivers which is a great advantage. In this case with my headphones I listened for a reappearance of 4X6FR in my left ear or VFO B. The right ear VFO A was scanning other signals that appeared on the waterfall. Needless to say, the station from Israel never again showed up on the waterfall, but he was still out there as he was being spotted by U.S. stations on DX Summit. 

As time went on the best way to describe what I saw on the waterfall was "now you see them and now you don't" When I did tune on some DX and made contact it was touch and go to make a fast and simple RST exchange and if I felt lucky I added my name and location. I was pleased with my radio time and made contact with 4O4T in Montenegro, R5AF, SP6AEG, LZ305AI, IK5OPR and finally TZ4AM from Mali which was a new one for me. I saw him being spotted on 17meters and I decided to venture there as 20m was getting a bit slow. 

The spot indicated "up 1" which meant there was a pile up and he was operating split. I skipped over to 17 meters and then landing myself on his calling frequency just to make sure I could hear him before I got too excited. There he was at S6 and I knew I had to move fast as the deep QSB had robbed me a few times from catching nice DX. I set my radio to split and dual watch which allows me to hear the DX and those who are calling him. BUT strange thing no one was calling him and my waterfall was void of signals. It could be the QSB playing games with me. So when I heard him call CQ I put my call out and he came back to me on my first call. TZ4AM was in the log and I was happy. Very shortly after the contact the deep QSB took the signal from the waterfall. 

It's Monday today and I was busy getting some household chores done throughout the day. Maybe this evening I will be back on the radio and see how 40m treats me. 

It's time once again for The Weekender. This is our bi-weekly departure into the world of amateur radio contests, open source conventions, special events, listener challenges, hedonism and just plain fun. Thanks for listening and, if you happen to get a chance, feel free to call us or e-mail and send us some feedback. Tell us how we're doing. We'd love to hear from you.

73 de The LHS Crew

Most automobiles don’t provide a lot of room for mounting ham radio transceivers. (Obviously, their design priorities are wrong!) Because of this, many ham transceivers have removable control panels that can be mounted on the dashboard and the main radio is installed somewhere else, such as under a seat.

Midland radio is doing some interesting things with micro-sized radios for the General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS). The MXT275 MicroMobile® Two-Way Radio puts all of the radio controls and the display in the handheld microphone.

Yaesu FT-8500

This radio reminded me of an old Yaesu radio, the FT-8500, which had almost all of the controls crammed onto the microphone. (Someone named the microphone “Mr. Potatohead” which seems appropriate, but I did not name it.) This radio had the display on the radio body, which seems like a limitation. At any rate, this rig was not very popular. I do not know anyone that owned one.

So the FT-8500 was not a big hit but maybe it is time for another go at a microphone-centric transceiver. I am thinking a basic 2m/70 cm FM radio could use this approach to ease the mobile installation challenge.

Simplicity in Design

You may be thinking that a GMRS radio is fundamentally simpler than a typical VHF/UHF ham transceiver.  This is true…a typical GMRS radio has 22 channels that might have options such as CTCSS tones and repeater offset. A typical ham transceiver has more frequencies, more features, and lots of settings required.

However, if you consider the typical FM transceiver setup and usage, most people set up the memories for the repeater and simplex channels they use, usually via programming software. After that, operating the radio is 99% just selecting the desired memory channel. This kind of usage lends itself to having a simpler set of controls that can be incorporated into the microphone. This approach will require a good understanding of user needs and some careful design work to create a radio that works well.

This type of radio design will probably not work for everyone. There will be hams that want every feature available all of the time.  That’s just fine. However, the microphone-centric approach may be a good fit for installation in the “other car” that doesn’t get used quite so much. Or in the case where a family member objects to having a Real Radio cluttering up the dashboard.

Using this type of radio will be a lot like using a handheld transceiver, with the addition of a microphone cable,  but no batteries or antenna cable drooping down. The Midland radio has the speaker in the radio unit but it may be better to put it in the microphone (with the option of plugging in an external speaker.)

I think this idea would well for some number of mobile radio installations. What do you think?

73 Bob K0NR

The post How About A Mic-Centric Mobile Transceiver? appeared first on The KØNR Radio Site.

In this episode, Martin Butler (M1MRB) is joined by Chris Howard (M0TCH), Frank Howell (K4FMH), Bill Barnes (WC3B) and Caryn Eve Murray KD2GUT to discuss the latest Amateur / Ham Radio news. Colin (M6BOY) rounds up the news in brief and in the episode we feature Grand Field Day.

We would like to thank Michael Casavant (N1XRR) and our monthly and annual subscription donors for keeping the podcast advert free. To donate, please visit - http://www.icqpodcast.com/donate

• Woman Says Ham’s RF Interferes with Her Insulin Pump
• Ham Saves Long-Distance Radio Friend (by accident)
• Contacts over 5,000 km in 144 MHz Opening
• FCC Application Fees Unlikely to go into Effect Until 2022
• Sailing Vessel with Ham Radio History Marks 100 years
• Vanderbilt’s Silent CubeSat Awakens 6 months after Launch
• Bonaire Amateur Radio Club Established