AmateurRadio.com

My friend and colleague Frank/K4FMH has published several recent articles on trends in amateur radio licensing and demographics. This one, The Decline in ARRL Membership and Market Share, has some interesting data and observations about licensing trends in the US. (It also comments on ARRL membership trends, but that is not the subject of this post.) This post focuses on the decline in the number of FCC amateur radio licensees in the past few years. See the chart below.

By License Class

As Frank points out, breaking this out by license class is illuminating. Unsurprisingly, the Novice and Advanced class licensees are experiencing a slow, steady decline. This probably represents the natural decline of a set of licensees when no new licenses are issued. Advanced class licensees declined 4.7% per year from 2019 to 2024. Some of these licensees may be upgrading to higher class licenses, but anecdotally, I think this is a small effect.

The Technician class is more concerning, with a 7.2% cumulative decline starting roughly in June 2021. (The data is in 6-month increments.) Being the entry-level license and representing about half of the total licenses, it is a strong indicator of ham radio licensing activity, in general. One potential factor contributing to this decline is that COVID-19 restrictions on public gatherings started around March 2020. In most areas, the VE exam opportunities dropped off dramatically, which could have affected the number of new licensees. This triggered a new emphasis on offering online exams, so exam availability improved during the following years.

Fees and Dabblers

Another factor is that the FCC fee implemented a $35 application fee in April 2022. However, this came after the Technician decline started. Although the $35 fee is arguably “reasonable,” I expect it to decrease the number of licensees.

Many Technicians are only dabbling in ham radio.

Dabbler: someone who takes a slight and not very serious interest in a subject, or tries a particular activity for a short period.

These Dabblers may get their license in response to family or friends encouraging them to do it. Or they may have a work connection such as being a firefighter, law enforcement officer, or emergency medical technician. Or maybe they were curious about the hobby, but it did not quite take hold. When they get to the point of renewing their license, many Dabblers will likely decide not to spend the $35. One might argue that the Dabblers are not engaged in the amateur radio service so having them drop out may be just fine. Whatever the reason, the result is fewer licensees.

Frank points out that the General and Extra Class numbers are increasing, reflecting healthier activity in those license classes. However, the slope of those curves is pretty flat, and the General class declined slightly during the past year. From December 2019 to December 2024, the General class numbers increased by 3% and the Extra class by 4%. US population growth was about 3% during this time, so these two license classes are just keeping up with population growth. I’d argue there are fewer Dabblers in the General and Extra ranks as they have demonstrated enough interest and commitment to the hobby that they went to the trouble of earning a higher-level license. Accordingly, the $35 FCC fee would have less effect on these two license classes. (I don’t have data to support this, so it is just my own little hypothesis.)

Back in 2018, I made some comparisons between ham radio and other activities. These ratios have probably not changed much in 7 years.

Ham Radio, Chess and Model Railroading

In 2018, the number of amateur radio licenses in the FCC database was about 0.2% of the US population, which remains about the same today. Of course, not all those licensees are active, so this overstates ham radio activity. Birdwatching came in at 3% of the population, so it’s 10 times more popular than ham radio.

Conclusions

Technician decline is real and should be a cause for concern. I don’t think we should panic but if this trend continues, the ham radio population will wither away. I mentioned the probable impact from COVID-19, which should be a transient event that has now passed. The impact of the FCC license application fee (if any) could be long-lasting.

It is well known that the radio amateur population is skewed towards older individuals…mostly older men. Aging does cause people to leave the hobby over time, either by death or by reduced physical and mental ability. This is probably part of the picture, but why would it only affect the Technician numbers?

What do you think?

73 Bob K0NR

The post The Case of The Shrinking Technicians appeared first on The KØNR Radio Site.