AmateurRadio.com

Is amateur radio in the United States dying? The short answer is NO. But it is CHANGING. Here is why and how.

Author's note: Several months ago, I was contacted by a corporate sales broker to prepare a brief assessment of the ham radio market. This article is a version of that work. It is based upon best available evidence rather than a well-funded deep-dive study of the commercial market for amateur radio.

Those who read online sites devoted to amateur radio, listen to or contribute to on-air rag chews, attend hamfests, or read published media devoted to amateur radio have heard many, many times: amateur radio is “dying”.

But what does the term “dying” mean in this context? The Oxford English Dictionary offers the following definition:

Dying: Adjective. 1. That is at the point of death; in a dying state, close to collapse; 2. That is ceasing to exist, function, or be in use; 3. Esp. of a period of time: final, concluding, closing.

It is clear that the connotation is “ceasing to exist, function, or be in use” by the many hams who claim this.

I address this belief as to whether there is any actual evidence supporting it. Short answer? No. But the hobby itself is changing.

The problem is that there is a disjuncture between the “knower” and the “known,” a well-known philosophical issue in epistemology, going back to Descartes. What these hams “know” is based on several factors, none of which lead to an accurate reading of the larger ham radio “room.” To start, it is based on selective information about the hobby as a whole. I explain why this “information silo” yields an incorrect inference to rank-and-file hams. The elements of how the hobby is changing are described with “best available data.” Conclusions on how these changes are shaping the commercial market for the amateur radio hobby are discussed. In the end, the reader may disagree with my conclusions. I would welcome objective, observable evidence to the contrary as my motivation is simply to better understand the hobby but here is my assessment for my recent consultancy.

Is amateur radio dying? Short answer? No. But the hobby itself is changing.

Selective Information

The widely held perception of the pending “death” of amateur radio comes from a selective set of observations that focus almost entirely on the Baby Boomer generation. This is the bias of one’s “personal windshield” as the basis of knowing.

Here’s what I mean. Driving an automobile to and from a work location, for instance, gives a clear sense of the immediate area of residence, the place of work and the typical route(s) from one to the other. But only during specific times of day when that travel is routine. It rarely gives a complete picture of the communities themselves. For example, freeways cut through neighborhoods without any visibility of them or any inclusion in one’s recollection of what is there, except what is visible via the windshield of the automobile. Contrast this with the use of an aerial view through, say, Google Earth, which allows one to visualize far beyond what the daily drive can allow. This personal windshield view is largely taken-for-granted as observable fact, based on personal observation. This is difficult to challenge by independent facts. But they should be. I do that now.

Collectively, we hams look at hamfests and formal print/digital publications and see mostly elderly hams, members of the Greatest Generation or the Baby Boom. Some, but few, young people. These sources of information largely sample elderly hams since these are festivals organized and managed for the most part by Boomers themselves. (This is what statisticians call a “convenience sample” which doesn’t generalize to a wider population but is valid within the limits of the observations themselves.) The post-Boomer generation participants are geared toward digital media, especially Youtube and such, and are not likely to be nearly as present in conventional print media. Or at a hamfest. (The ARRL has recently been waving its arms editorially to balance this. It has not had much effect in my personal windshield. Has it yours?) Hence, the “personal windshield” suggests that the hobby must be in the process of expiring as is the Baby Boomer generation itself. And that view is powerful at a personal level.

Why This Interpretation is Wrong

This perception is patently false based on independent data, while it is likely very accurate for hamfests. How can a hobby be dying when there are more licensed hams than ever before, some 780,000, according to the FCC? Annual FCC amateur radio license growth is generally 1-2% per year. This out-paces overall population growth in the U.S at 0.5 percent. There are also over 20,000 “repeaters” (think cell towers for ham operators) in the U.S. today (21, 611 as shown on RepeaterBook.com as of a recent check). Each one is installed and maintained at considerable expense by the individual ham or group owning the repeater system. This expense is not trivial. Thus, ham radio numbers are continuing to increase in absolute terms and exceed the rate of general population growth. See Figures 1 and 2 shown below. But why is there the perception of a “dying” hobby in the face of these objectively counter-intuitive indicators? It’s the power of the personal windshield in operation.

There are other social forces at work here, too. The political scientist, Robert Putnam (see Bowling Alone), characterized the social fabric of the U.S. in recent times as declining in social capital, our social connections with each other, promoting the ability to make collective decisions for the benefit of the group. From his group’s website:

Putnam draws on evidence including nearly 500,000 interviews over the last quarter century to show that we sign fewer petitions, belong to fewer organizations that meet, know our neighbors less, meet with friends less frequently, and even socialize with our families less often. We’re even bowling alone. More Americans are bowling than ever before, but they are not bowling in leagues. Putnam shows how changes in work, family structure, age, suburban life, television, computers, women’s roles and other factors have contributed to this decline.

The central premise of social capital is that social networks have value. Social capital refers to the collective value of all “social networks” [who people know] and the inclinations that arise from these networks to do things for each other [“norms of reciprocity”].

Social capital works through multiple channels:
– Information flows (e.g. learning about jobs, learning about candidates running for office, exchanging ideas at college, etc.) depend on social capital.
– Norms of reciprocity (mutual aid) rely on social networks. Bonding networks that connect folks who are similar sustain particularized (in-group) reciprocity. Bridging networks that connect individuals who are diverse sustain generalized reciprocity.
– Collective action depends upon social networks although collective action also can foster new networks.
– Broader identities and solidarity are encouraged by social networks that help translate an “I” mentality into a “we” mentality.

How does this matter? Here are some factoids from the Bowling Alone website, as trends over the past 25 years:

• Attending Club Meetings: 58% drop
• Family dinners: 43% drop
• Having friends over: 35% drop

Have anything to do with the hobby? Uh, have you been an officer in a local club or attended a meeting lately? Indeed, it does!

For the U.S., membership in the largest organization purporting to represent amateur radio exhibits a clear “bowling alone” pattern: there are more ham operators than ever but also a sharp and continuing decline in the American Radio Relay Leagues’ membership as expressed as market-share. See Figures 3 and 4 (see the footnote about latest provisional numbers). Looking only at ARRL membership numbers, for instance, would suggest that the hobby is not doing well. This would be a false reading of the actual strength of the hobby and the market it represents. While there has been a significant growth in the number of FCC-granted amateur licenses, the market share of the ARRL has dropped like a stone since the long-time executive leader Dave K1ZZ was named Chief Executive Officer. (These data do not include the past two years in which there is a significant additional drop in League membership after the controversial print QST cost increase.) Looking only at the market share of the ARRL alone would seriously under-estimate the strength of the market for commercial equipment and services to licensed ham operators. I’ll add that only listening to largely inactive repeaters is another brick in the “bowling alone” wall. Thus, the hobby is far more than ARRL membership or repeater use but these are clear indicants of the change afoot in the hobby itself.

[Author's note: the latest provisional membership number I've been given is 137,000, some 15,000 of which are international members. These charts have been updated in recent articles on this blog.]

Any objective reading of the public sphere of ham radio would suggest that at times the League itself represents a dumpster fire of poor organizational performance (just peruse the voluminous posts in various Forums at QRZ.com). (Note: I am a Life Member and an Assistant Director under two Delta Division Directors.) But what is behind this decline in market-share? Could it be the decline in social capital in general, but exacerbated in the hobby by ineffective League operations? This factor affects local, regional and national clubs, too. Here are some thoughts about it and they complement my recent article which goes deeper into the organizational issues.

More Americans are bowling than ever before, but they are not bowling in leagues. There are more licensed hams than ever before but so few of them are members of another league: the ARRL, National Association for Amateur Radio.

Frank M. Howell, PhD K4FMH

The long time question of ARRL’s lack of transparency, except to “insiders,” contributes a restricted information flow about the hobby. From the Headquarters outward, I liken this communication style to a general message of: We are the ARRL…and You’re Not. It reduces social bonds with the League and shuts off bridges that build consensus toward collective action. The MyARRL Voice organization is a direct repercussion of this abrasive communication style by League headquarters.

This stance by leadership and some staff reduces norms of reciprocity, such as when the League calls on members (and non-members at times) for assistance. It reduces the capability in the hobby of effective collective action towards any change heralded as positive by large groups of amateur operators. Examples: when dues are raised and publication prices are changed; for lobbying activities; for recruitment; and other key social actions. The lack of mutual aid in the form of bonding networks (the lack of actually facilitating hams with similar interests in formal ARRL activities) or bridging networks (those who volunteer but are routinely ignored because they are not “known” by HQ staff or have criticized the ARRL in the past). The lack of women or persons of color in many groups is a reflection of this lack of bridging networks to bring them into the information flow that feeds the collective culture of the hobby.

The OMIK organization is an historical example of an independent group formed when active bridging networks by the ARRL could have supplanted the need for it. From the OMIK website, the organization’s own story:

The OMIK Amateur Radio Association, Inc. was founded on August 17, 1952, as the OMIK Electronic Communications Association by Black amateur radio operators from the states of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Kentucky to deal with discrimination in the dominant culture and to assist Black travelers with information on places where they could safely eat and lodge. Many ham organizations denied membership to Blacks. Therefore, black amateur radio operators needed a Black Amateur Radio organization with its own nets and other activities.

There are many examples of the lack of both bonding and bridging networks created by the ARRL, whose official description is: “the national association for amateur radio, connecting hams around the U.S. with news, information and resources.” The ARRL is the only organization that claims to represent all of amateur radio in the U.S. (Note that it largely controls the IARU so there is also an international influence by the League.) AMSAT, an international organization, suffers from similar organizational effectiveness issues here in the U.S. (internal strife that often spills over into the public sphere). There are others but these two suffice to illustrate my point.

Clearly, social capital in the hobby is at a low ebb, with the group claiming to represent the hobby at large being a critical actor in this decline. 

Clearly, social capital in the hobby is at a low ebb, with the group claiming to represent the hobby at large being a critical actor in this decline. For a national non-profit with a paid staff who relies heavily on unpaid volunteers, these actions reducing social capital appear to be related to their market share decline. As Putnam described in his highly praised work, the decline of social capital reflects an important social change. But not “death” of the hobby itself.

To further illustrate how the view of U.S. amateur radio as “dying” continues to be perpetuated, we consider who dominates the hobby. By this, I mean who has power to influence what goes on, what major decisions are made, and how are federal regulations that proscribe the hobby’s being shaped? Is any “change” readily confused with a sign of “death” because it is different from this dominant group’s preferences? I wrote earlier about the “secret storm” approaching amateur radio contesting in the U.S., a sign of a cultural change riding alongside the generational demographic shift in the decline of Baby Boomers. If a dominant group is aging out, then that view carries significant weight in perceptions. Let’s try to describe who they are.

The population comparisons for current ham operators and national organizational membership does, in fact, show this Baby Boomer dominance in League membership. We do not know the age of licensees themselves, only those who hold membership in the ARRL. We do know age patterns of licensees in the UK, courtesy of Ofcom. This age pattern is present in both the US and in the United Kingdom. See Figure 5. Membership in the ARRL has been concentrated in age groups over age 50. Most of the leadership falls into this age group as well. This presents another element giving credence to the personal windshields of hams who fill in the blanks when relevant data are not publicly available. The League’s resistance to release any data that they may have to the public merely exacerbates this dependence on merely personal observations alone.

To examine those who are in key positions to influence the League’s actions, consider two elements. Both are available in the Annual Reports of the ARRL. 2022 is the most recent report available on the ARRL.org website, although 2023 has been released during the writing of this article. One, look at the picture of the Board of Directors and other officers (see page 21). Based on subjective appearances, there appear to be very few under age 50. Only three who present themselves pictorially as women. Only one is a person of color and she is no longer a Board member. Two, the major donors are in the Maxim Society Donors group (see page 23). These individuals, couples or organizations have given $10,000 or more over their lifetime. I have not tried to identify the ages of these individuals. A best guess is that the vast majority of the individuals or couples are also over age 50. But I could be wrong. It is safe to say that members of the Baby Boomer (or perhaps Greatest) generation(s) have more political clout in League matters than any other group.

With Baby Boomer dominance in the League, and likely in local clubs and other positions of power, viewing the changes associated with age tend to be interpreted as “death” rather than simply social change. The organization and ways of doing things (culture) is slipping away in noticeable ways. While we need to know much more about the spatial demography of amateur licensees, this pattern itself suggests that what we see in society overall, we see in ham radio. In other words, the dominant group’s view is proffered to be the correct one. At least, in the group promoting itself as the national association for the hobby in the U.S.

But, not so fast! Let’s further examine strategic activity spaces where this decline is already appearing in the hobby. Activity spaces are the concept that describes the collective actions of routine behavior that effectively define the fabric of the hobby itself. Contesting is one specialized activity that is prevalent by Board of Director members and Maxim Society donors. Individual contest (and DX) clubs can be major political actors with donations and other means to sway the ARRL. Changes there could be a canary in the coal mine of cultural change in the hobby. Changing generational demographics is a pressure toward change in the hobby’s organization and market segmentation, but not necessarily death. It just seems like it to those whose activity space is changing out from under them.

Baby Boomers have an expected 10-15 years left in the hobby as of this writing. The participation by hams in contesting illustrates this pattern. See Figure 7 for where the past two decades of contest participants are located, near most population centers in the U.S. and Canada. Based on 20 years of ARRL Sweepstakes data on individual participants (log-submitters), the map below tends to follow the license distribution across North America.

The results are not positive for typical CW contest participants, perhaps the most traditional activity space in the hobby. There are about 10-15 years left in the viability of this market segment.

Using these data on individual participants in the ARRL Sweepstakes Contests, I’ve estimated their age-based mortality schedule. The results are not positive for typical CW contest participants, perhaps the most traditional activity space in the hobby. There are about 10-15 years left in the viability of this market segment. Participants in the elite ARRL contests exhibit a decided pattern toward nearing their end of life or departure from the market due to infirmities. See Figures 8 and 9. The red line in these graphs are the average age at death for members of that birth cohort. About one half live less with the remainder living beyond this age. The aging pattern—the caterpillar’s hump—is moving past the benchmark of 65 in each subpanel. This is moreso for CW operators than phone. In Figure 9, the expected years until Silent Key status demonstrates the “secret storm” of CW operators substantially declining in the near future.

This is a signal event in this cultural change. It is one that the QST Editor declined to publish for it presented a “too negative of a tone,” although there were no technical limitations to the study. This intentional lack of transparency in objective research using the ARRL’s own data further degrades the social capital in the hobby.

Phone operators, while aging, are where newcomers to this ARRL Contest are entering. Thus, the importance of CW operators in the hobby, to the extent that this pattern generalizes to other contests, will shift toward phone operators. This is a signal event in this cultural change. It is one that the QST Editor declined to publish for it presented a “too negative of a tone,” although there were no technical limitations to the study. This intentional lack of transparency in objective research using the ARRL’s own data further degrades the social capital in the hobby.

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The knee-jerk response to this “demography is destiny” impression is to chase children as the recruitment answer. This is because the origins of the hobby itself was based almost wholly on young teens and adults (see Howell, “Amateur Radio’s Lost Tribe: The ‘Blue-Collar Scholars’ Who Started It All.” The Spectrum Monitor, February 2022; available at FoxMikeHotel.com). Many Boomers got involved as teens but many of them did not. (For evidence on this from a national survey of Canadian hams, see this article.) The fastest growing segment of amateurs is comprised of “late-in-life” hams. See Figure 10. While ham licenses grow about 1+ percent per year, However, growth in the “late-in-life” ham category (those who are at least 50 years of age but only licensed 10 years or less) was an annual 2.5 percent.  (see Howell 2013). Late-in-life hams have several very desirable market aspects: peak earnings, empty nest (fewer household obligations), and disposable income. Thus, chasing children is not the only marketing strategy for amateur radio as a hobby and the Boomer segment should not be written off for well over a decade. (Note that Boomers also have grandchildren.)

Late-in-life hams have several very desirable market aspects: peak earnings, empty nest (fewer household obligations), and disposable income. Thus, chasing children is not the only marketing strategy for amateur radio as a hobby and the Boomer segment should not be written off for well over a decade.

Changing Organization Due to Demographic Shifts

As noted above, the emergent market for amateur radio lies in HOW ham radio’s activity space is changing. In social science, the activity space designates the “set of places individuals encounter as a result of their routine activities in everyday life.” (see Cagney et al.) Hams writ large do not consider how much the technology is driven by the organization of activities. Ever wonder why one’s CQ call is not answered even though propagation conditions are good? Contests are perhaps the purest example, containing dates, times, frequencies, and rules of competition. EmComm via ARES is another example with rule books, exams, meetings, and random meetings during times of emergencies. Satellite communications depend on the relative passing of particular satellites over locations on the Earth. There are others but the “activity space” concept is a central one to the hobby of amateur radio, much more than is formally recognized in ham radio publications and books. Getting an answer to one’s call of CQ is very different when there is a contest on the calendar, regardless of the propagation conditions.

Hams writ large do not consider how much the technology is driven by the organization of activities. Ever wonder why one’s CQ call is not answered even though propagation conditions are good? Contests are perhaps the purest example, containing dates, times, frequencies, and rules of competition.

For amateur radio, the highest status activity has been “contesting” and “DX chasing.” Compare the publication and website space devoted to these two activities, a sign of status-allocation. The ARRL and numerous other groups organize competition—which are part of a purported “radio sport”— where operators compete for the most contacts. Certain contacts with other participants are worth more than others with elaborate rule-sets for scoring. These are contests. Chasing DX (distant stations) is hunting but for stations in geographic locations that are challenging to contact (not unlike some fishing competitions, for instance). This activity space has been the dominant high-status arena in the hobby for decades, generating its own label of the “contesting mafia.”

Consequently, wealthy hams have spent upwards of $1M or more to guarantee their success through the construction of “super stations” and very elite teams of contesters. Or, send expeditions to faraway places to get on the air so that DXers can try to contact them and therefore “work” the rare location. These activities tend to cost increasing amounts, much more than most hams spend in their career on personal equipment. But as the technology required for being successful to accrue to status symbols of winning major contests has made it possible for fewer hams to accrue these status symbols, it has made it especially difficult for those who are members of younger generations to compete on any type of equal footing. Contest organizers have tried to “handicap” this structural inequality through classes of competition so as to maintain participation levels. But, contesters also know which porch the Big Dog sits upon. Just listen. You’ll hear them barking.

The Cheese Has Moved

Migration and housing patterns have land-use restrictions constraining traditional “high status” activities (e.g., contesting and DXing) requiring towers, high RF power, space, and time to operate. Because of the relatively small number of relatively well-to-do amateur operators who can build (or get access to) super stations, there has been a radical shift in activity space from high-cost, relaxed land-use restrictions, to portable, QRP, and modest satellite operations. These can be conducted in backyard patios, nearby parks, and in temporary vacation or other locations without many issues if the activity space to support them is organized. This organization is fundamentally no different from contesting or DXpeditions.

The cheese in ham radio’s activity spaces has moved intergenerationally…

The activity space of operating in parks began in 2016, by the ARRL I hasten to add, and has continued with phenomenal growth by a third-party after the League washed it’s hands of the NPOTA activity sponsorship. As of June 2019, “parks on the air” (POTA) operators had recorded more than 538,000 contacts. Started by a small group of U.S. volunteers in 2016, POTA now boasts 1,500-plus registered users and has continued to grow at an unprecedented rate. Why? Because it is an activity space in which any licensed ham operator can succeed.

A second activity space that is rapidly growing is satellite communications. The AMSAT organization says that there are at least 20 satellites in orbit that facilitate amateur radio communication. Almost all US astronauts on the International Space Station are licensed hams, since it is a “social media” for them during their off-times which in space. In 2019, there were over 130,000 members of the AMSAT organization. (I am an AMSAT Life Member.) The growth in satellite use by hams is a second activity space that is seeing increased market focus by manufacturers and hobbyists. Why? Because a wide variety of amateurs can participate successfully in working Sats!

Using data from a national survey of Canadian hams by the Radio Amateurs of Canada, Figures 11 and 12 illustrate this path of how the “cheese” has moved generationally in certain patterns of activities. We do not have similar data for the U.S. Canadian Boomers are more frequently using traditional activities while younger hams engage in new ones. This does not directly represent “death” of the hobby that Baby Boomers practice but the emergence of the operational style that younger hams enjoy.

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As a youngster in the 1960s, I vividly recall the AM operators on 75 meter phone grousing about the “mush mouths” using the new-fangled SSB. Many AM ops didn’t have a BFO on their receivers; hence, the name. What’s the latest canary in the coal mine?

The explosion of computer-assisted digital data modes may well be a similar social change rather than “death” of the hobby. As noted in my full survey report and in a previous article on this blog, contesting in Canada ranks 15th whereas portable operating is 9th in a list of activities pursued in a given month. Interested readers can see where CW operating ranks in this list. The results are not inconsistent at all in the ARRL Sweepstakes results that Dr. Scott Wright and I obtained. They are prescient indicators of cultural change on the back of demographic shifts but had “too negative of a tone” to warrant publication in the flagship magazine of the League, QST (also noted above). Somehow, an ostrich comes to mind here.

These are behavioral measures of age-graded (and generational) change in how the hobby is being pursued. Boomer hams are following traditional activity space activities while younger amateurs are helping define newer activity spaces. Boomers see death while hobbyists of a younger generation see excitement in different modes of operating. This is change afoot rather than death-and-dying as perceived by those with the most tenure and influence in the hobby.

Boomers see death while hobbyists of a younger generation see excitement in different modes of operating. This is change afoot rather than death-and-dying as perceived by those with the most tenure and influence in the hobby.

Market Presence of Monetized Youtube Channels Focusing on Amateur Radio

If the hobby were dying, would there be an online monetized media segment developing around it? Would some hams claim that this is their sole source of earnings? Not likely. Certainly, those hams do not see evidence of the hobby’s passing. Rather, it is a new, innovative venue for the creation of entertainment content for the ham community and the commercial sector, the latter of which often invests donated equipment for review to these hams. A sampling of popular video channels on Youtube reveals that younger content creators are surpassing the estimated subscriber base versus those in the Boomer generation. See Figure 13.

Two of the most popular channels produced by members of the Baby Boom generation — Jim Heath W6LG and Dave Casler (who is a contract employee of the ARRL) — have subscriber levels and views much lower than many younger content creators. Two of the largest ones, Ham Radio Crash Course at 300,000 subscribers and Ham Radio 2.0 at 153,000, far exceed those produced by Boomer-age creators. The largest one is mostly technically-oriented: Mr. Carlson’s Lab at 371,000 subscribers. (One can debate my allocating him to the “young” group.) These revenue data are estimates and are used for illustration. The fact that the revenue numbers are estimates based on the source’s use of the Youtube algorithm for monetization does not change this group’s presence in making money off of content creation in the hobby. The monetized Youtube arena demonstrates a clear and strong presence that is a more effective way to reach younger amateur radio operators and those who wish to become licensed than print media like QST and the recently defunct CQ Magazine. It seems to be growing whereas print media is not. It would be inconsistent with a hobby space that is in the throes of imminent demise.

General Public Interest in Amateur Radio

What is the interest by the general public in amateur radio? Would a substantial decline in measure of this interest suggest the demise of ham radio? Possibly. But amateur radio has long been out of the public’s eye except during widespread emergencies. Nonetheless, examining these patterns would be useful for any dramatic patterns in this aspect of the health of the hobby. I use a form of Google’s search engine to examine amateur radio’s search patterns.

The trend in Google Searches for the term “amateur radio” (see Figure 14) currently remains fairly flat and not in decline, once the period post-Hurricane Katrina is ignored. The decline from the period beginning in 2004 arises from the central role that amateur radio played in the emergency response operations involving Hurricane Katrina and the high level of news media coverage of those activities.

The relative number of searches—a common mode for determining general public interest in a topic—has remained fairly flat since 2009, a sign that there is no reduction in general interest by the public in amateur radio. Thus, while this form of measured public interest among Internet users does not show an increase in information-seeking over time, it does not show much of a decrease either.

Conclusions on death-and-dying and living all at the same time

How is it that the hobby can be dying and living all at the same time? Schrodinger’s cat may be in the box but there’s a simpler explanation.

Baby boomers have dominated the amateur radio hobby for some decades now, obtaining positions of power in the major organizing associations, the ARRL, AMSAT, and others. The death-and-dying view of the hobby is rooted well within this dominant generation. The definition-of-the-situation, as the social psychologist W.I. Thomas famously said, is real in it’s consequences if men define them as real. Boomers have largely been the group defining the hobby for a long time. From their personal windshields, this is what they see. But it appears largely incorrect today.

We have shown that there is no empirical evidence that the amateur radio in the U.S. is dying. Far from ceasing to exist, the hobby is merely changing, and in line to change significantly over the next decade or so. These changes will cause the market to realign to new elements of activity emphasis and new activity spaces while some traditional practices in the hobby may well fade away.

The often-heard claim that any organized activity is dying is usually a sign that it is merely changing in significant ways that do not fit the definitions promoted by power brokers whose voice defines the situation. The scheduled exit of the Baby Boomer generation gives this appearance because members of this generation are in the positions of power and control in the organized aspects of the hobby. See the Board of Directors for the American Radio Relay League or the AMSAT organization as examples. Younger generation ham operators participate in the hobby differently and are engaging in a break from the activity spaces ensconced in the hands of Baby Boomers. For instance, the new World Radio League and its associated learning company, HamRadioPrep.com, tell me that they have a tremendous youth market for both companies. It is largely in the approach to the youth market. The market for amateur radio products and services is far from being in rapid decline. Astute targeted marketing using data such as these presented here, as well as new professional data collections, can guide the production and profitable sales regimes through the next several decades.

This has consequences in the hobby in several ways. More rancor and conflict, clearly present on certain common websites and social media groups, and dramatic losses in paid membership in the ARRL are two of them. One can see in the common watering-holes that post-Boomer hams and Boomers frequent are largely segregated into difference locations. The age-graded patterns of operator behavior, coupled with a serious lack of younger operators joining the gray beards in the League, is the instrumental canary in the coal mine of this generational shift. The institutional decline in Boomer-dominated groups will foster change at a faster rate.

This means that major manufacturers and resellers of gear for the amateur radio hobby will undergo some repositioning of products. For instance, take a look at the past five or so years in products for portable operating. It is substantial, fostering the emergence of many cottage industries of small portable radios and accessories specifically designed for outdoor operating. The rise of the premium transceiver has focused on the market segment willing to spend several thousands of dollars for a prized, well-featured transceiver. As the Baby Boomer market declines, this market segment may well change, too.

Should the number of FCC granted amateur licenses go into significant decline, would that then mean the hobby is dying? Was it viewed as dying some 20-30 years ago when there were far fewer hams? From the 1970s onward, the number of licenses grow at a fast pace (see table from the Clear Sky Institute above). Should they plateau to the population adoption rates of, say, 1980, that would not mean death of the hobby. It would mean change and perhaps in ways that younger amateurs would see as positive and beneficial. (“OK, Boomer. Time to move over…”)

Perhaps ham operators should recognize that their personal windshields are comfortable and useful but not very good for grand generalizations like the hobby is dying. Yes, an activity space that is well known as “hamfests” are attended mostly by Baby Boomers. Some will die off due to both lack of attendance, sales by vendors who do not get their needed return-on-investment for attending, the aging of hams who organize and operate them, and fewer in the market to go to them. Some already have. Hanging out on Discord servers, Youtube interactions, Zoom group gatherings, and online ordering will likely replace them as well as make them not “periodic” but in near real-time. Print media will evaporate due to cost, storage and lack of interest but interactive digital media will offer more and better information to readers. Remember those aggravating “mush-mouth” SSB operators? They rule today. Who will define-the-situation tomorrow?

There was a time that the American Radio Relay League was the dominant organizer of amateur radio in the United States. In fact, at their 50th Anniversary, the ARRL General Manager John Huntoon made this statement:

“In May, 1914, a small band of radio amateurs led by the late Hiram Percy Maxim, of [Maxim] Silencer fame, and Clarence Tuska, started a national organization and named it the American Radio Relay League. Since that time the story of amateur radio has been the history of the League, the chronicle of amateurs working together for the public welfare and for their common good.” (Huntoon 1965).

John Huntoon. 1965. “Forward.” Fifty Years of ARRL. Newington, Connecticut: American Radio Relay League.

They may still be as this is written. But with the dramatic and continuing drop in market share in the League’s membership over the past decade, corresponding to when the long-time administrator at ARRL Headquarters David Sumner was named Chief Executive Officer, coupled with the palpable and escalating displeasure of a significant majority of licensed amateurs with the National Association, it is hardly the case that the modern story of ham radio in the U.S. solely belongs to the League’s public relations department. This decline also contributes to the Baby Boomer impression of the hobby’s death: wasn’t it largely invented by Maxim and the League in Newington, CT?

Indeed, as I documented in my 2021 article, “Amateur Radio’s Lost Tribe,” it was Clarence Tuska who actually taught the “novice class” Hiram Maxim and his son about the wireless (for an audio version of my article, listen to Episode 363 of the ICQ Podcast). Tuska did it with the parts purchased from Hugo Gernsback’s Electro Imports company in New York City. But the League has no coverage of the first person, Hugo Gernsback, to nationally organize operating wireless enthusiasts in these United States in any of their publications, for it diminishes their claims that amateur radio is what they say it is. This precipitous decline in market share is coupled with the current ARRL CEO’s claim that there are only about 250,000 “active” U.S. hams so their 175,000 137,000 or so members contain the vast majority of them. The Emperor’s Clothes could well be vanishing.

This is change afoot, not the hobby’s demise, for that history will be written by the generations coming after the Baby Boomers. That may not involve the American Radio Relay League.

Progress involves change. Those vested in the status quo rarely see these changes as progress but death. It rarely is. I can find no evidence that ham radio is dying. So, I will return to the beginning.

Amateur radio is not:

• at the point of death
• in a dying state
• close to collapse
• ceasing to exist, function, or be in use
• in a final, concluding, or closing state

The change is largely institutional. There are more activity spaces in the hobby now, organized outside the auspices of the ARRL, leading to other groups shaping and defining what the “history” of amateur radio will be in the future. The demographic decline in the Baby Boomer generation will fuel this transfer of stakeholdership from the National Association for Amateur Radio to a number of others. The emergence of so many cottage companies who offer exciting products into the market is likely to grow. The largest manufacturers may well continue their success but in the market segment who will invest thousands of dollars into equipment that they are able to fit into their residential constraints. This is change afoot, not the hobby’s demise, that that history will be written by the generations coming after the Baby Boomers.

The only thing that would mean the death of the hobby of amateur radio would be if Congress and the FCC abolished the legal service.