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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 10 0413 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 – 09 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2721 (N10, L=286 class/area Bxo/010 on 09 Sep) emerged near center disk on 08 Sep. This small region exhibited slight growth early on 09 Sep, but was showing signs of decay as of this report and remained inactive.

On 09 Sep, a prominence eruption was observed off the SW limb, beginning at 09/0815 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery and at 09/0824 UTC in 171 imagery. While this event appears to be directed well south and west of the Sun-Earth line, significant gaps in SOHO coronagraph imagery data made analysis nearly impossible.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 03 – 08 Sep, then decreased to moderate levels on 09 Sep. A peak flux of 12,435 pfu was observed on 03/2035 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 03 – 09 Sep, with an isolated period of active conditions on 05 Sep, likely due to a negative polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds began the period near 325 km/s, increased to over 500 km/s on 05 Sep and 07 Sep, and ended the period near 400 km/s. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, and saw a peak of 11 nT on 07 Sep. The Bz component was variable through the period and saw a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 September – 06 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels through period. Moderate levels are expected from 10 – 12 Sep and again from 29 Sep – 06 Oct. High levels are expected from 13 – 28 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10 Sep. Conditions are then likely reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 11 Sep due to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are also likely on 12 Sep as CH HSS effects persist. Active levels are expected on 13, 14, and 22 Sep from the influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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